Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 37%
3 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$179.39
Smart Money Signal
7 of 19 top traders (37%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$7.58 | 62% 397-239 (636) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $709.91 | — | -$711 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $700.97 | $1.4K | +$703.42 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $508.36 | $503.61 | +$0.09 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $249.1 | — | -$250.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $253.58 | $503.61 | +$250.19 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 26¢ | $71.2 | $249.23 | +$178.03 | 50% 2065-2056 (4121) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $102.96 | $104 | +$1.04 | 98% 3320-70 (3390) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 61.2¢ | $118.63 | — | -$117.88 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 42.5¢ | $71.84 | $60 | -$11.84 | 51% 3088-2980 (6068) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.5¢ | $42.39 | — | -$42.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.1¢ | $29.45 | $60 | +$30.55 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.6¢ | $79.12 | — | -$77.52 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $24.74 | $51 | +$26.26 | 44% 1886-2437 (4323) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.7¢ | $41.4 | — | -$41.4 | 54% 2138-1828 (3966) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $56.88 | — | -$55.76 | 60% 3418-2292 (5710) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $41.43 | — | -$41.43 | 50% 1731-1732 (3463) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 35.2¢ | $36 | — | -$31.02 | 46% 1344-1580 (2924) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $9.81 | $26.65 | +$16.84 | 38% 580-937 (1517) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $36.14 | $20 | -$11.19 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.8¢ | $3.17 | — | -$3.17 | 48% 1903-2089 (3992) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $4.79 | $10 | +$5.21 | 52% 2446-2260 (4706) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.3¢ | $2.43 | — | -$2.43 | 38% 1284-2104 (3388) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $14.05 | — | -$14.05 | 47% 1924-2156 (4080) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $11.2 | — | -$11.2 | 46% 2530-3008 (5538) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $9.43 | $13 | +$3.57 | 32% 943-1979 (2922) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 41% 1439-2039 (3478) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.79 | — | -$1.79 | 47% 1965-2218 (4183) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$7.58
Record
62%
397-239 (636)
Both legs:
Invested
$508.36
Value
$503.61
PnL
+$0.09
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.2
Value
$249.23
PnL
+$178.03
Record
50%
2065-2056 (4121)
Invested
$102.96
Value
$104
PnL
+$1.04
Record
98%
3320-70 (3390)
Invested
$118.63
Value
—
PnL
-$117.88
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$71.84
Value
$60
PnL
-$11.84
Record
51%
3088-2980 (6068)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.12
Value
—
PnL
-$77.52
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$24.74
Value
$51
PnL
+$26.26
Record
44%
1886-2437 (4323)
Invested
$41.4
Value
—
PnL
-$41.4
Record
54%
2138-1828 (3966)
Invested
$56.88
Value
—
PnL
-$55.76
Record
60%
3418-2292 (5710)
Invested
$41.43
Value
—
PnL
-$41.43
Record
50%
1731-1732 (3463)
Invested
$36
Value
—
PnL
-$31.02
Record
46%
1344-1580 (2924)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$26.65
PnL
+$16.84
Record
38%
580-937 (1517)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$36.14
Value
$20
PnL
-$11.19
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.17
Value
—
PnL
-$3.17
Record
48%
1903-2089 (3992)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.79
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.21
Record
52%
2446-2260 (4706)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.43
Value
—
PnL
-$2.43
Record
38%
1284-2104 (3388)
Invested
$14.05
Value
—
PnL
-$14.05
Record
47%
1924-2156 (4080)
Invested
$11.2
Value
—
PnL
-$11.2
Record
46%
2530-3008 (5538)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$9.43
Value
$13
PnL
+$3.57
Record
32%
943-1979 (2922)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
41%
1439-2039 (3478)
Invested
$1.79
Value
—
PnL
-$1.79
Record
47%
1965-2218 (4183)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $249.23
hoodquant
Down — $104
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $51
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0