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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 46%

Total Value

$663.52

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 13 top traders (46%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Down7 traders

Total Value$663.52

Total Shares664

Combined PnL+$34.77

Up — 46%Down — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.4K	62% 397-239 (636)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.2¢	$507.74	$508	+$4.92	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$43.12	$56.41	+$13.29	51% 3088-2980 (6068)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$35.47	$35	-$0.47	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 88.2¢	$28.86	$27.72	+$3.62	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 18.3¢	$20.44	—	-$20.44	50% 4199-4276 (8475)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$7.89	$15.02	+$7.13	50% 1731-1732 (3463)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 53¢	$7.95	$15	+$7.05	54% 2138-1828 (3966)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 27.1¢	$9.09	—	-$9.09	46% 1344-1580 (2924)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 88¢	$7.46	$6.36	-$0.77	46% 2530-3008 (5538)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 12.5¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	52% 2446-2260 (4706)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$36.8	—	-$36.8	50% 2065-2056 (4121)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$2.37	—	-$2.37	44% 1886-2437 (4323)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

62%

397-239 (636)

Invested

$507.74

Value

$508

PnL

+$4.92

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

Invested

$43.12

Value

$56.41

PnL

+$13.29

Record

51%

3088-2980 (6068)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$35.47

Value

$35

PnL

-$0.47

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$28.86

Value

$27.72

PnL

+$3.62

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$20.44

Value

—

PnL

-$20.44

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$7.89

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$7.13

Record

50%

1731-1732 (3463)

Invested

$7.95

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.05

Record

54%

2138-1828 (3966)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

—

PnL

-$9.09

Record

46%

1344-1580 (2924)

Invested

$7.46

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$0.77

Record

46%

2530-3008 (5538)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

52%

2446-2260 (4706)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$36.8

Value

—

PnL

-$36.8

Record

50%

2065-2056 (4121)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.37

Value

—

PnL

-$2.37

Record

44%

1886-2437 (4323)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 13 top traders (46%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3ad1a71e...5773ae

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794645900

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $508

soswald1

Down — $56.41

blue.birds

Down — $35

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $27.72

asdcaxz

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $15.02

ply-pm2

Down — $15

rabadabadoo

Up — $0

suntori

Down — $6.36

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