Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 35%
4 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$276.97
Smart Money Signal
7 of 20 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$4.97 | 62% 389-237 (626) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $601.71 | $1.2K | +$601.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $601.82 | — | -$606.41 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $633.86 | -$57.7 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $316.93 | $633.86 | +$313.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $365 | — | -$371.4 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $533.49 | $495.23 | -$7.62 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.7¢ | $250.95 | $495.23 | +$245.53 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $249.9 | — | -$253.15 | |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $467.46 | $472.18 | +$4.72 | 71% 1451-591 (2042) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $205.92 | $208 | +$2.08 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $171.33 | $131.35 | -$39.98 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.5¢ | $165.16 | $106 | -$35.4 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $98.11 | $84.71 | -$13.4 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.4¢ | $51.15 | $84.71 | +$33.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.8¢ | $46.96 | — | -$46.96 | |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.4¢ | $89.26 | — | -$89.26 | 51% 880-838 (1718) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.8¢ | $20.32 | — | -$20.32 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $26.7 | — | -$24.83 | 60% 3392-2277 (5669) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $20.6 | $17.51 | -$3.09 | 46% 1332-1572 (2904) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.3¢ | $20.11 | — | -$20.11 | 44% 1875-2425 (4300) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $15.5 | $31 | +$15.5 | 58% 4908-3582 (8490) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 77.9¢ | $11.2 | $14.38 | +$3.18 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.4¢ | $17.85 | — | -$17.85 | 54% 2121-1818 (3939) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $9.18 | — | -$9.18 | 48% 1122-1203 (2325) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $17.05 | — | -$17.05 | 38% 578-927 (1505) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $6.54 | — | -$6.54 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 47% 1953-2201 (4154) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $2.97 | — | -$2.97 | 48% 1893-2072 (3965) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.5¢ | $1.96 | — | -$1.96 | 52% 2431-2242 (4673) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$4.97
Record
62%
389-237 (626)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$633.86
PnL
-$57.7
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Both legs:
Invested
$533.49
Value
$495.23
PnL
-$7.62
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$467.46
Value
$472.18
PnL
+$4.72
Record
71%
1451-591 (2042)
Invested
$205.92
Value
$208
PnL
+$2.08
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$171.33
Value
$131.35
PnL
-$39.98
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$165.16
Value
$106
PnL
-$35.4
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$98.11
Value
$84.71
PnL
-$13.4
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.26
Value
—
PnL
-$89.26
Record
51%
880-838 (1718)
Invested
$20.32
Value
—
PnL
-$20.32
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$26.7
Value
—
PnL
-$24.83
Record
60%
3392-2277 (5669)
Invested
$20.6
Value
$17.51
PnL
-$3.09
Record
46%
1332-1572 (2904)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$20.11
Value
—
PnL
-$20.11
Record
44%
1875-2425 (4300)
Invested
$15.5
Value
$31
PnL
+$15.5
Record
58%
4908-3582 (8490)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$14.38
PnL
+$3.18
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Invested
$17.85
Value
—
PnL
-$17.85
Record
54%
2121-1818 (3939)
Invested
$9.18
Value
—
PnL
-$9.18
Record
48%
1122-1203 (2325)
Invested
$17.05
Value
—
PnL
-$17.05
Record
38%
578-927 (1505)
Invested
$6.54
Value
—
PnL
-$6.54
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
47%
1953-2201 (4154)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.97
Value
—
PnL
-$2.97
Record
48%
1893-2072 (3965)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
—
PnL
-$1.96
Record
52%
2431-2242 (4673)
Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Down — $472.18
hoodquant
Down — $208
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $131.35
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $106
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0