Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$1.28
Smart Money Signal
9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$2.74 | 62% 389-237 (626) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $501.3 | $495 | -$3.6 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $251.3 | — | -$251.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.5 | $495 | +$247.7 | |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $296.7 | $297 | +$0.3 | 51% 1269-1214 (2483) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $55.04 | $75 | +$19.96 | 51% 880-838 (1718) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $69.3 | $70 | +$0.7 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $42.86 | $54.12 | +$11.26 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $38.64 | $52.34 | +$13.7 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $34.92 | $51 | +$16.08 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.68 | $11.44 | -$1.19 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $4.68 | $6 | +$1.32 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 54% 2121-1818 (3939) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $2.82 | — | -$2.82 | 48% 1122-1203 (2325) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 32% 936-1965 (2901) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.2¢ | $34.56 | — | -$34.56 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1256-2094 (3350) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.1¢ | $22.1 | — | -$22.1 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $1.87 | — | -$1.87 | 46% 1332-1572 (2904) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$2.74
Record
62%
389-237 (626)
Invested
$501.3
Value
$495
PnL
-$3.6
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.7
Value
$297
PnL
+$0.3
Record
51%
1269-1214 (2483)
Invested
$55.04
Value
$75
PnL
+$19.96
Record
51%
880-838 (1718)
Invested
$69.3
Value
$70
PnL
+$0.7
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$42.86
Value
$54.12
PnL
+$11.26
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$38.64
Value
$52.34
PnL
+$13.7
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$34.92
Value
$51
PnL
+$16.08
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$12.68
Value
$11.44
PnL
-$1.19
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.32
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
54%
2121-1818 (3939)
Invested
$2.82
Value
—
PnL
-$2.82
Record
48%
1122-1203 (2325)
Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
32%
936-1965 (2901)
Invested
$34.56
Value
—
PnL
-$34.56
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1256-2094 (3350)
Invested
$22.1
Value
—
PnL
-$22.1
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$1.87
Value
—
PnL
-$1.87
Record
46%
1332-1572 (2904)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Down — $297
Little-big
Down — $75
hoodquant
Down — $70
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $54.12
soswald1
Down — $52.34
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $51
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $11.44
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $6