Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
18
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$725.79
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 62% 389-237 (626) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $503.22 | $504.66 | +$3.84 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $253.22 | $504.66 | +$251.44 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$247.6 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $124.27 | $125.81 | +$1.54 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $22.38 | $24 | +$1.62 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.5¢ | $28.02 | — | -$28.02 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $18.57 | $19.96 | +$2.79 | 60% 3392-2277 (5669) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.6¢ | $36.71 | — | -$23.66 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $11.97 | $17.36 | +$5.39 | 54% 2121-1818 (3939) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $12.74 | — | -$12.74 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $11.4 | $15 | +$3.6 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $3.84 | $8 | +$4.16 | 48% 1893-2072 (3965) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $5.7 | $6 | +$0.3 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 52% 2431-2242 (4673) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.6¢ | $1.92 | — | -$1.92 | 32% 936-1965 (2901) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 16.5¢ | $4.67 | — | -$4.67 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 46% 1332-1572 (2904) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.7¢ | $8.56 | — | -$8.56 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.7¢ | $2.76 | — | -$2.76 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $12.75 | — | +$2.1 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
62%
389-237 (626)
Invested
$503.22
Value
$504.66
PnL
+$3.84
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.27
Value
$125.81
PnL
+$1.54
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$22.38
Value
$24
PnL
+$1.62
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$28.02
Value
—
PnL
-$28.02
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Invested
$18.57
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$2.79
Record
60%
3392-2277 (5669)
Invested
$36.71
Value
—
PnL
-$23.66
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$17.36
PnL
+$5.39
Record
54%
2121-1818 (3939)
Invested
$12.74
Value
—
PnL
-$12.74
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.6
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.84
Value
$8
PnL
+$4.16
Record
48%
1893-2072 (3965)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.3
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
2431-2242 (4673)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.92
Value
—
PnL
-$1.92
Record
32%
936-1965 (2901)
Invested
$4.67
Value
—
PnL
-$4.67
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
46%
1332-1572 (2904)
Invested
$8.56
Value
—
PnL
-$8.56
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.76
Value
—
PnL
-$2.76
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$12.75
Value
—
PnL
+$2.1
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $125.81
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $24
suntori
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $19.96
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $17.36
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $15