Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 74%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$450.74
Smart Money Signal
15 of 20 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$0.74 | 62% 389-237 (626) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $730 | +$30.95 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $312.5 | — | -$331.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $365 | $730 | +$362.1 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $507.01 | $504.85 | +$3.01 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 57.7¢ | $140.02 | — | -$131.2 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.1¢ | $82.83 | $84.42 | +$1.59 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52¢ | $71.23 | $137 | +$65.77 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
SU suntoriCTR | Downavg 39¢ | $451.98 | — | -$398.22 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 65.3¢ | $58.04 | $57.83 | +$14.55 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.7¢ | $35.34 | — | -$35.34 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 66.6¢ | $55.26 | $41 | -$8.44 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $13.05 | $20 | +$6.95 | 52% 2431-2242 (4673) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $18.65 | $35 | +$16.35 | 48% 1893-2072 (3965) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $13.76 | $15.74 | +$4.67 | 46% 1332-1572 (2904) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $16.59 | $29 | +$12.41 | 54% 2121-1818 (3939) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 33.5¢ | $3.35 | $10 | +$6.65 | 44% 1875-2425 (4300) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $9.1 | — | -$9.1 | 47% 1953-2201 (4154) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $10 | +$3.3 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $6 | +$1.98 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $3.95 | $5.9 | +$1.95 | 32% 936-1965 (2901) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $10.91 | $0.01 | -$7.01 | 60% 3392-2277 (5669) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0.74
Record
62%
389-237 (626)
Invested
$750
Value
$730
PnL
+$30.95
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Both legs:
Invested
$507.01
Value
$504.85
PnL
+$3.01
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$140.02
Value
—
PnL
-$131.2
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$82.83
Value
$84.42
PnL
+$1.59
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$71.23
Value
$137
PnL
+$65.77
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$451.98
Value
—
PnL
-$398.22
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$58.04
Value
$57.83
PnL
+$14.55
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$35.34
Value
—
PnL
-$35.34
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$55.26
Value
$41
PnL
-$8.44
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.05
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.95
Record
52%
2431-2242 (4673)
ohioism<$100Invested
$18.65
Value
$35
PnL
+$16.35
Record
48%
1893-2072 (3965)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$15.74
PnL
+$4.67
Record
46%
1332-1572 (2904)
Invested
$16.59
Value
$29
PnL
+$12.41
Record
54%
2121-1818 (3939)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.65
Record
44%
1875-2425 (4300)
Invested
$9.1
Value
—
PnL
-$9.1
Record
47%
1953-2201 (4154)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.3
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.98
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
$5.9
PnL
+$1.95
Record
32%
936-1965 (2901)
Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
Invested
$10.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$7.01
Record
60%
3392-2277 (5669)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up — $1.3K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
Up — $504.85
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $84.42
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $137
suntori
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $57.83
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
Up — $41