Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$352.26
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$14.6 | 62% 389-237 (626) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $625.38 | — | -$585.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $628.58 | $1.3K | +$600.44 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $512.29 | $492 | +$6.28 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $243.7 | — | -$241.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $243.4 | $492 | +$248.06 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $191.53 | $190.76 | -$0.77 | 54% 2121-1818 (3939) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 47.6¢ | $155.7 | — | -$155.7 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 50.8¢ | $150.62 | — | -$135.18 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 43.6¢ | $69.12 | $118.03 | +$52.51 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 54.9¢ | $172.91 | — | -$154.11 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.3¢ | $37.92 | — | -$37.92 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $29.35 | $36.79 | +$7.44 | 46% 1332-1572 (2904) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $32.86 | $35.62 | +$2.76 | 48% 1360-1458 (2818) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $14.14 | $29.56 | +$15.42 | 52% 2431-2242 (4673) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 39.5¢ | $8.91 | $20 | +$11.09 | 44% 1875-2425 (4300) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $36.78 | $19.99 | -$16.79 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $18.76 | $19 | +$0.24 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 24.9¢ | $16.41 | — | -$16.41 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 25¢ | $14.55 | $58.11 | +$43.56 | 38% 578-927 (1505) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $7.18 | $13.8 | +$6.62 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $8.2 | $20 | +$11.8 | 48% 1893-2072 (3965) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 28.7¢ | $16.58 | — | -$16.58 | 47% 1953-2201 (4154) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $10 | +$4.9 | 60% 3392-2277 (5669) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $4.98 | — | -$4.98 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 18.2¢ | $4.44 | $24.35 | +$19.91 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.4¢ | $36.89 | — | +$7.58 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 58% 4908-3582 (8490) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.6
Record
62%
389-237 (626)
Both legs:
Invested
$512.29
Value
$492
PnL
+$6.28
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
Invested
$191.53
Value
$190.76
PnL
-$0.77
Record
54%
2121-1818 (3939)
Invested
$155.7
Value
—
PnL
-$155.7
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$150.62
Value
—
PnL
-$135.18
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$69.12
Value
$118.03
PnL
+$52.51
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$172.91
Value
—
PnL
-$154.11
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$37.92
Value
—
PnL
-$37.92
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$36.79
PnL
+$7.44
Record
46%
1332-1572 (2904)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$32.86
Value
$35.62
PnL
+$2.76
Record
48%
1360-1458 (2818)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.14
Value
$29.56
PnL
+$15.42
Record
52%
2431-2242 (4673)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$8.91
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.09
Record
44%
1875-2425 (4300)
Invested
$36.78
Value
$19.99
PnL
-$16.79
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$18.76
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.24
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$16.41
Value
—
PnL
-$16.41
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
Invested
$14.55
Value
$58.11
PnL
+$43.56
Record
38%
578-927 (1505)
Invested
$7.18
Value
$13.8
PnL
+$6.62
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.8
Record
48%
1893-2072 (3965)
Invested
$16.58
Value
—
PnL
-$16.58
Record
47%
1953-2201 (4154)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.9
Record
60%
3392-2277 (5669)
Invested
$4.98
Value
—
PnL
-$4.98
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.44
Value
$24.35
PnL
+$19.91
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
Invested
$36.89
Value
—
PnL
+$7.58
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
58%
4908-3582 (8490)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $190.76
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $118.03
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $36.79
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $35.62