Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 31%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 13 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,444

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Up9 traders

Total Value$519.66

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$32.03

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.3K	62% 389-237 (626)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$750	$697	-$26.89	51% 3061-2966 (6027)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$348.5	$697	+$339.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$352.93	—	-$366.5
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$529.69	$493	+$5.59	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$245.48	$493	+$250.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$246.27	—	-$245.3
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 53.7¢	$220.55	$208.29	-$12.26	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 65.5¢	$96.18	$110	+$13.82	52% 4818-4502 (9320)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 35¢	$39.17	$36	-$3.17	50% 4185-4256 (8441)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$17.97	$36	+$18.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$21.2	—	-$21.2
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$67.37	$43.98	+$7.63	51% 2002-1886 (3888)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$46.96	$40.6	-$6.36	54% 2121-1818 (3939)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 52¢	$38.31	$60	+$21.69	60% 3392-2277 (5669)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$24.68	$25.58	+$0.9	46% 1332-1572 (2904)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$16.45	—	-$16.45	48% 1122-1203 (2325)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 65¢	$11.9	$15	+$3.1	47% 1953-2201 (4154)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 90¢	$10	$11.11	+$1.11	47% 1910-2144 (4054)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 53¢	$2.7	$5.09	+$2.39	38% 1273-2090 (3363)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 38.8¢	$23.15	—	-$23.15	44% 1875-2425 (4300)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 39.4¢	$15.75	—	-$15.75	48% 1893-2072 (3965)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

62%

389-237 (626)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$750

Value

$697

PnL

-$26.89

Record

51%

3061-2966 (6027)

Both legs:

Up$348.550¢+$339.61

Down$352.9350¢-$366.5

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$529.69

Value

$493

PnL

+$5.59

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

Both legs:

Up$245.4849.8¢+$250.89

Down$246.2748.8¢-$245.3

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$220.55

Value

$208.29

PnL

-$12.26

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

Invested

$96.18

Value

$110

PnL

+$13.82

Record

52%

4818-4502 (9320)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$39.17

Value

$36

PnL

-$3.17

Record

50%

4185-4256 (8441)

Both legs:

Up$17.9749.9¢+$18.03

Down$21.235¢-$21.2

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$67.37

Value

$43.98

PnL

+$7.63

Record

51%

2002-1886 (3888)

Invested

$46.96

Value

$40.6

PnL

-$6.36

Record

54%

2121-1818 (3939)

Invested

$38.31

Value

$60

PnL

+$21.69

Record

60%

3392-2277 (5669)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$24.68

Value

$25.58

PnL

+$0.9

Record

46%

1332-1572 (2904)

Invested

$16.45

Value

—

PnL

-$16.45

Record

48%

1122-1203 (2325)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$15

PnL

+$3.1

Record

47%

1953-2201 (4154)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$1.11

Record

47%

1910-2144 (4054)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$2.39

Record

38%

1273-2090 (3363)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$23.15

Value

—

PnL

-$23.15

Record

44%

1875-2425 (4300)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

—

PnL

-$15.75

Record

48%

1893-2072 (3965)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 13 top traders (31%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x887abe21...80909f

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794642600

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $208.29

blue.birds

Up — $110

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $43.98

ply-pm2

Up — $40.6

aaa221

Up — $60

rabadabadoo

Up — $25.58

Trade on Polymarket