Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 62% 389-237 (626) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $745 | +$17.58 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $505.2 | $490.01 | -$10.4 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $255.2 | — | -$255.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490.01 | +$244.8 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.3¢ | $110.36 | $112.24 | +$1.88 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 70¢ | $114.03 | $91.85 | -$22.18 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 88.2¢ | $66.98 | $52 | -$14.98 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 59.4¢ | $41.37 | $69.66 | +$28.29 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $22.89 | $30.19 | +$10.8 | 46% 1332-1572 (2904) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $22.25 | $25 | +$2.75 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $17.03 | — | -$17.03 | 54% 2121-1818 (3939) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $16.45 | — | -$16.45 | 48% 1122-1203 (2325) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $20.15 | — | -$20.15 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $12.15 | $15 | +$2.85 | 44% 1875-2425 (4300) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | 58% 4908-3582 (8490) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $4.1 | $5.53 | +$1.43 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.4¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 32% 936-1965 (2901) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.2¢ | $1.93 | — | -$1.93 | 38% 578-927 (1505) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.5¢ | $0.73 | — | -$0.73 | 52% 2431-2242 (4673) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $0.11 | — | -$0.11 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.2¢ | $10.3 | — | -$10.3 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $6.08 | — | -$6.08 | 47% 1953-2201 (4154) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $0.88 | — | -$0.88 | 48% 1893-2072 (3965) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
62%
389-237 (626)
Invested
$750
Value
$745
PnL
+$17.58
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$505.2
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$10.4
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.36
Value
$112.24
PnL
+$1.88
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$114.03
Value
$91.85
PnL
-$22.18
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$66.98
Value
$52
PnL
-$14.98
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$41.37
Value
$69.66
PnL
+$28.29
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$22.89
Value
$30.19
PnL
+$10.8
Record
46%
1332-1572 (2904)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$22.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$2.75
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$17.03
Value
—
PnL
-$17.03
Record
54%
2121-1818 (3939)
Invested
$16.45
Value
—
PnL
-$16.45
Record
48%
1122-1203 (2325)
Invested
$20.15
Value
—
PnL
-$20.15
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.15
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.85
Record
44%
1875-2425 (4300)
Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.4
Record
58%
4908-3582 (8490)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.1
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$1.43
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
32%
936-1965 (2901)
Invested
$1.93
Value
—
PnL
-$1.93
Record
38%
578-927 (1505)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
—
PnL
-$0.73
Record
52%
2431-2242 (4673)
Invested
$0.11
Value
—
PnL
-$0.11
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
Invested
$10.3
Value
—
PnL
-$10.3
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
Invested
$6.08
Value
—
PnL
-$6.08
Record
47%
1953-2201 (4154)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.88
Value
—
PnL
-$0.88
Record
48%
1893-2072 (3965)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $745
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $112.24
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $91.85
asdcaxz
Up — $52
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $69.66
rabadabadoo
Up — $30.19
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $25
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0