Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 47%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 17 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$6.01 | 62% 389-237 (626) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $658.32 | $1.3K | +$652.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $661.74 | — | -$658.95 | |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$683.55 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $508.36 | — | -$488.76 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $190.42 | $203.08 | +$12.65 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 38.4¢ | $76.66 | $103.48 | +$26.82 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.4¢ | $39.77 | $103.48 | +$63.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.1¢ | $36.9 | — | -$36.9 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.2¢ | $74.04 | — | -$69.54 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $58.6 | $70.88 | +$12.27 | 54% 2121-1818 (3939) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $57.55 | — | -$57.55 | 46% 1332-1572 (2904) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 32.8¢ | $18.2 | $44.38 | +$37.16 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 74.1¢ | $131.8 | $33.25 | -$17.61 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $31.68 | $32 | +$0.32 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $28.05 | — | -$28.05 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $12.44 | $29 | +$16.56 | 47% 1953-2201 (4154) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $7.35 | — | -$7.35 | 38% 578-927 (1505) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 34.6¢ | $2.16 | $6.24 | +$4.08 | 44% 1875-2425 (4300) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 52% 2431-2242 (4673) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $12.67 | — | -$10.67 | 60% 3392-2277 (5669) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $3.5 | $7.15 | +$3.65 | 58% 4908-3582 (8490) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$6.01
Record
62%
389-237 (626)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$683.55
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$508.36
Value
—
PnL
-$488.76
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$190.42
Value
$203.08
PnL
+$12.65
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$76.66
Value
$103.48
PnL
+$26.82
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.04
Value
—
PnL
-$69.54
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$58.6
Value
$70.88
PnL
+$12.27
Record
54%
2121-1818 (3939)
Invested
$57.55
Value
—
PnL
-$57.55
Record
46%
1332-1572 (2904)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$44.38
PnL
+$37.16
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$131.8
Value
$33.25
PnL
-$17.61
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$31.68
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.32
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$28.05
Value
—
PnL
-$28.05
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$12.44
Value
$29
PnL
+$16.56
Record
47%
1953-2201 (4154)
Invested
$7.35
Value
—
PnL
-$7.35
Record
38%
578-927 (1505)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$6.24
PnL
+$4.08
Record
44%
1875-2425 (4300)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
2431-2242 (4673)
Invested
$12.67
Value
—
PnL
-$10.67
Record
60%
3392-2277 (5669)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$3.65
Record
58%
4908-3582 (8490)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $203.08
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $70.88
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0
suntori
Down — $44.38
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $33.25