Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 53%
$1.2K
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 63% 384-230 (614) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $750 | +$0.63 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $307.83 | $312 | +$4.17 | 98% 3242-69 (3311) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 91.2¢ | $58.92 | $28.41 | -$10.13 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $16.75 | $22 | +$5.25 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $18.5 | $21.08 | +$2.57 | 60% 3365-2262 (5627) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $14.01 | $20.59 | +$6.58 | 45% 2465-2964 (5429) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 63.4¢ | $17.12 | $27 | +$9.88 | 50% 1696-1707 (3403) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 58% 4903-3576 (8479) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $1.04 | $2.04 | +$1 | 51% 875-831 (1706) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 11.1¢ | $1.87 | — | -$1.87 | 54% 2104-1796 (3900) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.93 | — | -$0.93 | 32% 925-1945 (2870) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $2.06 | — | -$2.06 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 52% 2416-2220 (4636) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.7¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 38% 1261-2069 (3330) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $11.7 | — | -$11.7 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 46% 1322-1555 (2877) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 47% 1893-2128 (4021) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
63%
384-230 (614)
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$0.63
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Invested
$307.83
Value
$312
PnL
+$4.17
Record
98%
3242-69 (3311)
Invested
$58.92
Value
$28.41
PnL
-$10.13
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$16.75
Value
$22
PnL
+$5.25
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Invested
$18.5
Value
$21.08
PnL
+$2.57
Record
60%
3365-2262 (5627)
Invested
$14.01
Value
$20.59
PnL
+$6.58
Record
45%
2465-2964 (5429)
Invested
$17.12
Value
$27
PnL
+$9.88
Record
50%
1696-1707 (3403)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
58%
4903-3576 (8479)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$2.04
PnL
+$1
Record
51%
875-831 (1706)
Invested
$1.87
Value
—
PnL
-$1.87
Record
54%
2104-1796 (3900)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.93
Value
—
PnL
-$0.93
Record
32%
925-1945 (2870)
Invested
$2.06
Value
—
PnL
-$2.06
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
2416-2220 (4636)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
38%
1261-2069 (3330)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$11.7
Value
—
PnL
-$11.7
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
46%
1322-1555 (2877)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
47%
1893-2128 (4021)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $750
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $312
asdcaxz
Up — $28.41
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $22
aaa221
Up — $21.08
suntori
Up — $20.59
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $27
Hcrystallash
Up — $5