Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 45%
$925.05
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 20 top traders (45%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 384-230 (614) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $494.94 | $557.18 | +$62.24 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.9¢ | $510.13 | — | -$484.03 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $78.64 | $80 | +$7.12 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $79.17 | $65 | -$5.07 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $40.56 | $63 | +$22.44 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77.9¢ | $43.21 | $52.18 | +$8.97 | 60% 3365-2262 (5627) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $60.05 | $49 | -$1.15 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $22.77 | $20.21 | -$2.56 | 51% 875-831 (1706) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $16.2 | $10 | -$6.2 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 60.9¢ | $9.74 | $16 | +$6.26 | 58% 4903-3576 (8479) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $9.46 | $11.1 | +$1.64 | 46% 1322-1555 (2877) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $7.45 | — | -$7.45 | 47% 1939-2183 (4122) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.5¢ | $6.15 | — | -$6.15 | 54% 2104-1796 (3900) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.9¢ | $4.25 | — | -$4.25 | 38% 1261-2069 (3330) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.37 | — | -$1.37 | 32% 925-1945 (2870) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $1.01 | $1.38 | +$0.37 | 52% 2416-2220 (4636) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.2¢ | $14.5 | — | -$14.5 | 44% 1860-2404 (4264) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.1¢ | $5.84 | — | -$5.84 | 47% 1893-2128 (4021) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
384-230 (614)
Invested
$494.94
Value
$557.18
PnL
+$62.24
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
Invested
$510.13
Value
—
PnL
-$484.03
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Invested
$78.64
Value
$80
PnL
+$7.12
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$79.17
Value
$65
PnL
-$5.07
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Invested
$40.56
Value
$63
PnL
+$22.44
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Invested
$43.21
Value
$52.18
PnL
+$8.97
Record
60%
3365-2262 (5627)
Invested
$60.05
Value
$49
PnL
-$1.15
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$22.77
Value
$20.21
PnL
-$2.56
Record
51%
875-831 (1706)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$10
PnL
-$6.2
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$9.74
Value
$16
PnL
+$6.26
Record
58%
4903-3576 (8479)
Invested
$9.46
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$1.64
Record
46%
1322-1555 (2877)
Invested
$7.45
Value
—
PnL
-$7.45
Record
47%
1939-2183 (4122)
Invested
$6.15
Value
—
PnL
-$6.15
Record
54%
2104-1796 (3900)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.25
Value
—
PnL
-$4.25
Record
38%
1261-2069 (3330)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.37
Value
—
PnL
-$1.37
Record
32%
925-1945 (2870)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0.37
Record
52%
2416-2220 (4636)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$14.5
Value
—
PnL
-$14.5
Record
44%
1860-2404 (4264)
Invested
$5.84
Value
—
PnL
-$5.84
Record
47%
1893-2128 (4021)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $557.18
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $80
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $65
soswald1
Down — $63
aaa221
Down — $52.18
blue.birds
Down — $49
Little-big
Down — $20.21
asdcaxz
Down — $10