Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,753

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,253

Combined PnL+$39.18

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	63% 384-230 (614)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.02	51% 1264-1206 (2470)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$750	$727.2	+$6.25	51% 3032-2944 (5976)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$363.6	$727.2	+$367.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$350	—	-$361.7
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$506.22	$505	+$5.75	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$252.65	$505	+$252.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$243.63	—	-$246.6
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 82.8¢	$109.05	$78.74	-$30.31	50% 4163-4232 (8395)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.8¢	$65.23	$78.74	+$13.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.9¢	$43.82	—	-$43.82
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$57.51	$58	+$0.49	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$28.15	$30	+$1.85	52% 4799-4479 (9278)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$16.65	$30	+$13.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.1¢	$11.5	—	-$11.5
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$48.54	$65.37	+$16.83	50% 1696-1707 (3403)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$31.46	$53.19	+$21.73	60% 3365-2262 (5627)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$25.03	$29.8	+$4.77	54% 2104-1796 (3900)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 87¢	$23.7	$20	-$3.7	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 22.6¢	$5.65	—	-$5.65	47% 1939-2183 (4122)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 81¢	$8.53	$5.52	-$1.96	46% 1322-1555 (2877)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$1.44	—	-$1.44	38% 1261-2069 (3330)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 14.8¢	$3.49	—	-$3.49	52% 2416-2220 (4636)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 39.8¢	$82.03	—	-$82.03	45% 2465-2964 (5429)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	48% 1870-2057 (3927)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$0.47	—	-$0.47	47% 1893-2128 (4021)