Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
17
Up 59%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$60.94
Smart Money Signal
10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$19.72 | 63% 384-230 (614) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $694.07 | $1.4K | +$684.74 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $678.62 | β | -$665.02 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.7Β’ | $508.5 | $496 | -$11.58 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50.7Β’ | $258.5 | β | -$258.5 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $248 | $496 | +$246.92 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 51.9Β’ | $136.01 | $155.63 | +$28.77 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99Β’ | $110.88 | $112 | +$1.12 | 98% 3242-69 (3311) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 44.8Β’ | $54.23 | $81.66 | +$27.43 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.2Β’ | $31.89 | β | -$31.89 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.3Β’ | $66.26 | β | -$48.11 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 33.1Β’ | $17.23 | $32 | +$14.77 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 21.8Β’ | $7.32 | $21.3 | +$13.98 | 52% 2416-2220 (4636) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 48Β’ | $34.95 | β | -$34.95 | 54% 2104-1796 (3900) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 83.9Β’ | $14.94 | $17.81 | +$2.87 | 45% 2465-2964 (5429) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.9Β’ | $7.76 | β | -$7.76 | 38% 570-919 (1489) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 89Β’ | $7.65 | $5 | -$2.65 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 82Β’ | $49.67 | β | -$43.17 | 60% 3365-2262 (5627) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 19.2Β’ | $3.14 | $16.32 | +$13.18 | 46% 1322-1555 (2877) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 49Β’ | $2.45 | β | -$2.45 | 47% 1939-2183 (4122) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 23Β’ | $1.38 | $6 | +$4.62 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
![]() G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 33Β’ | $1.65 | $5 | +$3.35 | 44% 1860-2404 (4264) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 37% 1244-2078 (3322) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$19.72
Record
63%
384-230 (614)
Both legs:
Invested
$508.5
Value
$496
PnL
-$11.58
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.01
Value
$155.63
PnL
+$28.77
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$110.88
Value
$112
PnL
+$1.12
Record
98%
3242-69 (3311)
Invested
$54.23
Value
$81.66
PnL
+$27.43
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$31.89
Value
β
PnL
-$31.89
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$66.26
Value
β
PnL
-$48.11
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Invested
$17.23
Value
$32
PnL
+$14.77
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.32
Value
$21.3
PnL
+$13.98
Record
52%
2416-2220 (4636)
Invested
$34.95
Value
β
PnL
-$34.95
Record
54%
2104-1796 (3900)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$17.81
PnL
+$2.87
Record
45%
2465-2964 (5429)
Invested
$7.76
Value
β
PnL
-$7.76
Record
38%
570-919 (1489)
ohioism<$100Invested
$7.65
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.65
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
Invested
$49.67
Value
β
PnL
-$43.17
Record
60%
3365-2262 (5627)
Invested
$3.14
Value
$16.32
PnL
+$13.18
Record
46%
1322-1555 (2877)
Invested
$2.45
Value
β
PnL
-$2.45
Record
47%
1939-2183 (4122)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.62
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.35
Record
44%
1860-2404 (4264)
Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1244-2078 (3322)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
asdcaxz
Up β $155.63
hoodquant
Up β $112
blue.birds
Up β $81.66
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown β $0

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0
soswald1
Up β $32

MayorMamdani
Up β $21.3
ply-pm2
CTRDown β $0