Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$19.06 | 63% 384-230 (614) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $701.81 | — | -$706.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $717.46 | $1.4K | +$725.96 | |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$645.54 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $506.88 | — | -$479.47 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.1¢ | $231.15 | $243.39 | +$12.24 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 81.6¢ | $162.91 | $142.11 | -$15.81 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $69.54 | $64.5 | +$1.04 | 54% 2104-1796 (3900) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $35.1 | — | -$35.1 | 50% 1696-1707 (3403) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 51¢ | $124.13 | $28.73 | +$19.22 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.8¢ | $27.6 | $27.93 | +$0.33 | 98% 3242-69 (3311) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $57.25 | — | -$46.03 | 60% 3365-2262 (5627) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $21.54 | — | -$21.54 | 38% 570-919 (1489) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $10.56 | — | -$10.56 | 47% 1939-2183 (4122) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.7¢ | $20.18 | — | -$14.66 | 46% 1322-1555 (2877) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 52% 2416-2220 (4636) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $9.55 | — | -$9.55 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.5 | $6 | +$4.5 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 32% 925-1945 (2870) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $2.75 | — | -$2.75 | 51% 875-831 (1706) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.8¢ | $12.55 | — | -$12.55 | 44% 1860-2404 (4264) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 38% 1261-2069 (3330) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$19.06
Record
63%
384-230 (614)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$645.54
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Invested
$506.88
Value
—
PnL
-$479.47
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Invested
$231.15
Value
$243.39
PnL
+$12.24
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$162.91
Value
$142.11
PnL
-$15.81
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$69.54
Value
$64.5
PnL
+$1.04
Record
54%
2104-1796 (3900)
Invested
$35.1
Value
—
PnL
-$35.1
Record
50%
1696-1707 (3403)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$124.13
Value
$28.73
PnL
+$19.22
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Invested
$27.6
Value
$27.93
PnL
+$0.33
Record
98%
3242-69 (3311)
Invested
$57.25
Value
—
PnL
-$46.03
Record
60%
3365-2262 (5627)
Invested
$21.54
Value
—
PnL
-$21.54
Record
38%
570-919 (1489)
Invested
$10.56
Value
—
PnL
-$10.56
Record
47%
1939-2183 (4122)
Invested
$20.18
Value
—
PnL
-$14.66
Record
46%
1322-1555 (2877)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
52%
2416-2220 (4636)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.55
Value
—
PnL
-$9.55
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.5
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
32%
925-1945 (2870)
Invested
$2.75
Value
—
PnL
-$2.75
Record
51%
875-831 (1706)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$12.55
Value
—
PnL
-$12.55
Record
44%
1860-2404 (4264)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
38%
1261-2069 (3330)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $243.39
asdcaxz
Up — $142.11
ply-pm2
Up — $64.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $28.73
hoodquant
Up — $27.93
aaa221
CTRDown — $0