Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 35%
$1.1K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 17 top traders (35%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 378-225 (603) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $508.58 | $502.68 | +$0.84 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $75.39 | $119.27 | +$43.88 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $74.34 | $89.97 | +$15.63 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $65.34 | $66 | +$0.66 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $51.79 | $61.84 | +$10.05 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $50.68 | $60 | +$9.32 | 54% 2087-1785 (3872) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $47.96 | $57.93 | +$9.97 | 60% 3347-2246 (5593) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $49.46 | $33.14 | -$2.41 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.5¢ | $87.07 | — | -$85.32 | 45% 2420-2899 (5319) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $50 | +$23.5 | 51% 864-826 (1690) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $19.44 | $18 | -$1.44 | 52% 2405-2202 (4607) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $25.57 | — | -$23.47 | 46% 1316-1543 (2859) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $17.22 | — | -$17.22 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $5.15 | $5 | -$0.15 | 47% 1925-2172 (4097) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $2.16 | — | -$2.16 | 47% 1885-2113 (3998) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $8.2 | — | -$2.8 | 38% 1254-2047 (3301) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
378-225 (603)
Invested
$508.58
Value
$502.68
PnL
+$0.84
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Invested
$75.39
Value
$119.27
PnL
+$43.88
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Invested
$74.34
Value
$89.97
PnL
+$15.63
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Invested
$65.34
Value
$66
PnL
+$0.66
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
Invested
$51.79
Value
$61.84
PnL
+$10.05
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$50.68
Value
$60
PnL
+$9.32
Record
54%
2087-1785 (3872)
Invested
$47.96
Value
$57.93
PnL
+$9.97
Record
60%
3347-2246 (5593)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$49.46
Value
$33.14
PnL
-$2.41
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$87.07
Value
—
PnL
-$85.32
Record
45%
2420-2899 (5319)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$23.5
Record
51%
864-826 (1690)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$19.44
Value
$18
PnL
-$1.44
Record
52%
2405-2202 (4607)
Invested
$25.57
Value
—
PnL
-$23.47
Record
46%
1316-1543 (2859)
Invested
$17.22
Value
—
PnL
-$17.22
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
47%
1925-2172 (4097)
Invested
$2.16
Value
—
PnL
-$2.16
Record
47%
1885-2113 (3998)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
38%
1254-2047 (3301)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $502.68
soswald1
Down — $119.27
blue.birds
Down — $89.97
hoodquant
Down — $66
asdcaxz
Down — $61.84
ply-pm2
Down — $60
aaa221
Down — $57.93
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $33.14
suntori
CTRUp — $0