Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 42%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 63% 378-225 (603) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $753.1 | $745 | +$4.4 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $503.8 | $495 | -$5.7 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $253.8 | — | -$253.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.5 | $495 | +$248.1 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $456.93 | $462 | +$5.07 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $27.54 | $33.35 | +$5.81 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $16.68 | $15 | -$1.68 | 54% 2087-1785 (3872) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $10.47 | $10 | -$0.47 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $4.02 | — | -$4.02 | 51% 1257-1197 (2454) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 32% 922-1922 (2844) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.4¢ | $0.89 | — | -$0.89 | 52% 2405-2202 (4607) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 38% 1254-2047 (3301) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.06 | — | -$0.06 | 41% 1381-1964 (3345) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $6.4 | — | -$6.4 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
63%
378-225 (603)
Invested
$753.1
Value
$745
PnL
+$4.4
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Invested
$503.8
Value
$495
PnL
-$5.7
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Both legs:
Invested
$456.93
Value
$462
PnL
+$5.07
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
Invested
$27.54
Value
$33.35
PnL
+$5.81
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
Invested
$16.68
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.68
Record
54%
2087-1785 (3872)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$10.47
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.47
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$4.02
Value
—
PnL
-$4.02
Record
51%
1257-1197 (2454)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
32%
922-1922 (2844)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.89
Value
—
PnL
-$0.89
Record
52%
2405-2202 (4607)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
38%
1254-2047 (3301)
Invested
$0.06
Value
—
PnL
-$0.06
Record
41%
1381-1964 (3345)
Invested
$6.4
Value
—
PnL
-$6.4
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $745
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $462
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $33.35
ply-pm2
Down — $15
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $10
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0