Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Down 65%
$1.1K
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 63% 378-225 (603) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $754.45 | $750 | -$0.15 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49¢ | $504.46 | — | -$487.66 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $213.82 | $215.98 | +$2.16 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $28.4 | $40 | +$11.6 | 48% 1860-2039 (3899) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $35.07 | — | -$35.07 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $20 | $25 | +$5 | 44% 1849-2382 (4231) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $20 | +$1.6 | 47% 1885-2113 (3998) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 90.3¢ | $16.98 | $18 | +$1.02 | 41% 1381-1964 (3345) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $15.95 | — | -$15.95 | 46% 1316-1543 (2859) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 15.2¢ | $6.03 | — | -$6.03 | 54% 2087-1785 (3872) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.9¢ | $9.81 | — | -$9.81 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.8¢ | $1.06 | — | -$1.06 | 32% 922-1922 (2844) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $0.33 | — | -$0.33 | 60% 3347-2246 (5593) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.2¢ | $1.98 | — | -$1.98 | 52% 2405-2202 (4607) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.9¢ | $4.48 | — | -$4.48 | 38% 1254-2047 (3301) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 51% 2841-2744 (5585) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
63%
378-225 (603)
Invested
$754.45
Value
$750
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Invested
$504.46
Value
—
PnL
-$487.66
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Invested
$213.82
Value
$215.98
PnL
+$2.16
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
ohioism<$100Invested
$28.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$11.6
Record
48%
1860-2039 (3899)
Invested
$35.07
Value
—
PnL
-$35.07
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$20
Value
$25
PnL
+$5
Record
44%
1849-2382 (4231)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.6
Record
47%
1885-2113 (3998)
Invested
$16.98
Value
$18
PnL
+$1.02
Record
41%
1381-1964 (3345)
Invested
$15.95
Value
—
PnL
-$15.95
Record
46%
1316-1543 (2859)
Invested
$6.03
Value
—
PnL
-$6.03
Record
54%
2087-1785 (3872)
Invested
$9.81
Value
—
PnL
-$9.81
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.06
Value
—
PnL
-$1.06
Record
32%
922-1922 (2844)
Invested
$0.33
Value
—
PnL
-$0.33
Record
60%
3347-2246 (5593)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.98
Value
—
PnL
-$1.98
Record
52%
2405-2202 (4607)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.48
Value
—
PnL
-$4.48
Record
38%
1254-2047 (3301)
Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
2841-2744 (5585)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $750
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $215.98
ohioism
Up — $40
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $25
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $20
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $18
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0