Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 81%
4 arb excluded
$3.7K
$23.73
Smart Money Signal
13 of 16 top traders (81%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$7.13 | 63% 378-225 (603) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $691.85 | $1.4K | +$708.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $707.19 | — | -$715.35 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $710 | +$46.65 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $355 | $710 | +$359.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $297.83 | — | -$313.25 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $513.67 | $501.81 | +$7.57 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250.8 | $501.81 | +$251.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $239.88 | — | -$243.85 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $427.12 | $431.43 | +$4.31 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $145.7 | $160.27 | +$14.57 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $139.59 | $135.46 | -$4.13 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.7¢ | $97.14 | $135.46 | +$38.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.3¢ | $42.45 | — | -$42.45 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 60.9¢ | $124.36 | $104.38 | -$6.26 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $34.58 | $47 | +$12.42 | 52% 2405-2202 (4607) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $29.56 | $55.76 | +$26.21 | 51% 4479-4365 (8844) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $31.79 | $39.28 | +$7.49 | 46% 1316-1543 (2859) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 53.4¢ | $51.39 | $30.9 | +$0.97 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $23.32 | $36.07 | +$12.75 | 39% 566-904 (1470) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $9.47 | $11 | +$1.53 | 47% 1925-2172 (4097) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $11.1 | $15.21 | +$4.11 | 47% 1885-2113 (3998) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $5.85 | $5.09 | +$1.64 | 38% 1254-2047 (3301) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $14.83 | — | -$13.83 | 44% 1849-2382 (4231) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $5 | +$0.85 | 60% 3347-2246 (5593) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $2.81 | $5.2 | +$2.39 | 32% 922-1922 (2844) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 14.8¢ | $1.78 | — | -$1.78 | 41% 1381-1964 (3345) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 15.4¢ | $46.9 | — | -$43.64 | 54% 2087-1785 (3872) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$7.13
Record
63%
378-225 (603)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$710
PnL
+$46.65
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Both legs:
Invested
$513.67
Value
$501.81
PnL
+$7.57
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Both legs:
Invested
$427.12
Value
$431.43
PnL
+$4.31
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
Invested
$145.7
Value
$160.27
PnL
+$14.57
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
Invested
$139.59
Value
$135.46
PnL
-$4.13
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.36
Value
$104.38
PnL
-$6.26
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$34.58
Value
$47
PnL
+$12.42
Record
52%
2405-2202 (4607)
Invested
$29.56
Value
$55.76
PnL
+$26.21
Record
51%
4479-4365 (8844)
Invested
$31.79
Value
$39.28
PnL
+$7.49
Record
46%
1316-1543 (2859)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$51.39
Value
$30.9
PnL
+$0.97
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$23.32
Value
$36.07
PnL
+$12.75
Record
39%
566-904 (1470)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$11
PnL
+$1.53
Record
47%
1925-2172 (4097)
Invested
$11.1
Value
$15.21
PnL
+$4.11
Record
47%
1885-2113 (3998)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$5.85
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$1.64
Record
38%
1254-2047 (3301)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$14.83
Value
—
PnL
-$13.83
Record
44%
1849-2382 (4231)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.85
Record
60%
3347-2246 (5593)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$2.81
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$2.39
Record
32%
922-1922 (2844)
Invested
$1.78
Value
—
PnL
-$1.78
Record
41%
1381-1964 (3345)
Invested
$46.9
Value
—
PnL
-$43.64
Record
54%
2087-1785 (3872)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $431.43
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $160.27
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $104.38
MayorMamdani
Down — $47
bosona
Down — $55.76
rabadabadoo
Down — $39.28