Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Down 54%
4 arb excluded
$2.9K
$4.56
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$5.39 | 63% 378-225 (603) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $716.63 | $1.4K | +$721.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $717.98 | — | -$726.61 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $659.04 | -$14.66 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $329.52 | $659.04 | +$343.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $347.5 | — | -$358.3 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $504.8 | $498.7 | +$2.06 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $249.21 | $498.7 | +$249.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $246.67 | — | -$247.34 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 61.8¢ | $83.89 | $105.91 | +$22.02 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $54.36 | $58.6 | +$4.23 | 54% 2087-1785 (3872) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 74.2¢ | $47.09 | $41.55 | -$5.54 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.2¢ | $30.85 | $41.55 | +$10.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.3¢ | $16.25 | — | -$16.25 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 44.5¢ | $13.35 | $30 | +$16.65 | 48% 1860-2039 (3899) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.2¢ | $15.84 | — | -$15.84 | 39% 566-904 (1470) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.3¢ | $24.05 | — | -$20.32 | 46% 1316-1543 (2859) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $16.8 | $35 | +$18.2 | 48% 1104-1185 (2289) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $3.62 | $5 | +$1.38 | 47% 1925-2172 (4097) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 87.1¢ | $4.67 | $5.36 | +$0.69 | 45% 2420-2899 (5319) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $2.76 | — | -$2.76 | 60% 3347-2246 (5593) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.3¢ | $0.98 | — | -$0.98 | 52% 2405-2202 (4607) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 47% 1885-2113 (3998) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.6¢ | $14.08 | — | -$14.08 | 44% 1849-2382 (4231) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$5.39
Record
63%
378-225 (603)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$659.04
PnL
-$14.66
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Both legs:
Invested
$504.8
Value
$498.7
PnL
+$2.06
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.89
Value
$105.91
PnL
+$22.02
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$54.36
Value
$58.6
PnL
+$4.23
Record
54%
2087-1785 (3872)
Invested
$47.09
Value
$41.55
PnL
-$5.54
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.35
Value
$30
PnL
+$16.65
Record
48%
1860-2039 (3899)
Invested
$15.84
Value
—
PnL
-$15.84
Record
39%
566-904 (1470)
Invested
$24.05
Value
—
PnL
-$20.32
Record
46%
1316-1543 (2859)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$35
PnL
+$18.2
Record
48%
1104-1185 (2289)
Invested
$3.62
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.38
Record
47%
1925-2172 (4097)
Invested
$4.67
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$0.69
Record
45%
2420-2899 (5319)
Invested
$2.76
Value
—
PnL
-$2.76
Record
60%
3347-2246 (5593)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
—
PnL
-$0.98
Record
52%
2405-2202 (4607)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
47%
1885-2113 (3998)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$14.08
Value
—
PnL
-$14.08
Record
44%
1849-2382 (4231)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Up — $105.91
ply-pm2
Up — $58.6
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
Up — $30
flippingsharks
CTRDown — $0
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
PBot-5
Up — $35