Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 21 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 378-225 (603) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$702.54 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $508.91 | $493 | -$6.91 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $244.11 | $493 | +$247.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $254.9 | — | -$254.9 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $336.4 | $340 | +$3.6 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 41.4¢ | $69.81 | $107.08 | +$47.34 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $58.57 | $85 | +$26.43 | 47% 1885-2113 (3998) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 32.8¢ | $95.52 | — | -$76.83 | 51% 2841-2744 (5585) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 45.4¢ | $22.7 | $50 | +$27.3 | 47% 1925-2172 (4097) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $15.69 | $30 | +$14.31 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $89.01 | $30 | -$19.01 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $26.34 | $30.28 | +$3.94 | 71% 1440-584 (2024) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $18.49 | $25.55 | +$7.06 | 44% 1849-2382 (4231) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $8 | $20 | +$12 | 48% 1860-2039 (3899) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $12.71 | $23 | +$10.29 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 36.3¢ | $9.71 | $26.73 | +$17.02 | 46% 1316-1543 (2859) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $11.21 | $11.8 | +$0.59 | 45% 2420-2899 (5319) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $11.2 | — | -$11.2 | 60% 3347-2246 (5593) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $8.83 | — | -$8.83 | 52% 2405-2202 (4607) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 54.8¢ | $22.88 | — | -$8.14 | 54% 2087-1785 (3872) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 9.2¢ | $1.91 | — | -$1.91 | 32% 922-1922 (2844) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.2¢ | $10.96 | — | -$10.96 | 39% 566-904 (1470) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.8¢ | $4.97 | — | -$4.97 | 38% 1254-2047 (3301) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
378-225 (603)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$702.54
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Invested
$508.91
Value
$493
PnL
-$6.91
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Both legs:
Invested
$336.4
Value
$340
PnL
+$3.6
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
Invested
$69.81
Value
$107.08
PnL
+$47.34
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$58.57
Value
$85
PnL
+$26.43
Record
47%
1885-2113 (3998)
Invested
$95.52
Value
—
PnL
-$76.83
Record
51%
2841-2744 (5585)
Invested
$22.7
Value
$50
PnL
+$27.3
Record
47%
1925-2172 (4097)
Invested
$15.69
Value
$30
PnL
+$14.31
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$89.01
Value
$30
PnL
-$19.01
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$26.34
Value
$30.28
PnL
+$3.94
Record
71%
1440-584 (2024)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$18.49
Value
$25.55
PnL
+$7.06
Record
44%
1849-2382 (4231)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8
Value
$20
PnL
+$12
Record
48%
1860-2039 (3899)
Invested
$12.71
Value
$23
PnL
+$10.29
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
Invested
$9.71
Value
$26.73
PnL
+$17.02
Record
46%
1316-1543 (2859)
Invested
$11.21
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$0.59
Record
45%
2420-2899 (5319)
Invested
$11.2
Value
—
PnL
-$11.2
Record
60%
3347-2246 (5593)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8.83
Value
—
PnL
-$8.83
Record
52%
2405-2202 (4607)
Invested
$22.88
Value
—
PnL
-$8.14
Record
54%
2087-1785 (3872)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.91
Value
—
PnL
-$1.91
Record
32%
922-1922 (2844)
Invested
$10.96
Value
—
PnL
-$10.96
Record
39%
566-904 (1470)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.97
Value
—
PnL
-$4.97
Record
38%
1254-2047 (3301)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $340
asdcaxz
Up — $107.08
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $85
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $50
blue.birds
Up — $30
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $30