Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 9 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$2.53

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,154

Combined PnL-$11.56

Down9 traders

Total Value$328.15

Total Shares333

Combined PnL+$14.08

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$5.91	63% 373-217 (590)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	55% 3061-2517 (5578)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$177.68	$178.92	+$1.24	98% 3154-65 (3219)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 90.9¢	$42.14	$43.61	+$1.47	50% 4118-4199 (8317)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 81¢	$26.07	$29.43	+$3.35	52% 4757-4448 (9205)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 73¢	$27.88	$20.12	+$1.08	51% 2824-2718 (5542)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 88.8¢	$46.39	$18.74	-$0.16	51% 1947-1837 (3784)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$13.4	$16.84	+$3.44	51% 2993-2903 (5896)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 77¢	$11.55	$14.99	+$3.44	71% 1429-577 (2006)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 28.4¢	$9.16	$8.31	-$0.85	54% 2076-1762 (3838)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.9	$4.11	+$0.21	50% 1678-1678 (3356)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$3.05	$2.53	-$0.52	58% 4886-3565 (8451)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.86	$1.51	+$0.65	33% 917-1898 (2815)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.41	$1.41	-$0	51% 1243-1187 (2430)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 6.3¢	$2.69	$1.3	-$1.4	52% 2398-2181 (4579)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.26	$0.87	-$0.39	41% 1354-1943 (3297)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$2.4	$0.01	-$2.39	46% 1306-1529 (2835)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3.5¢	$0.76	$0.01	-$0.75	38% 1247-2019 (3266)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$5.91

Record

63%

373-217 (590)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3061-2517 (5578)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$177.68

Value

$178.92

PnL

+$1.24

Record

98%

3154-65 (3219)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$42.14

Value

$43.61

PnL

+$1.47

Record

50%

4118-4199 (8317)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$26.07

Value

$29.43

PnL

+$3.35

Record

52%

4757-4448 (9205)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$27.88

Value

$20.12

PnL

+$1.08

Record

51%

2824-2718 (5542)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$46.39

Value

$18.74

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

1947-1837 (3784)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$13.4

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$3.44

Record

51%

2993-2903 (5896)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$11.55

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$3.44

Record

71%

1429-577 (2006)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$9.16

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$0.85

Record

54%

2076-1762 (3838)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

1678-1678 (3356)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.52

Record

58%

4886-3565 (8451)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.86

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.65

Record

33%

917-1898 (2815)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1243-1187 (2430)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.69

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1.4

Record

52%

2398-2181 (4579)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$0.39

Record

41%

1354-1943 (3297)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.39

Record

46%

1306-1529 (2835)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.75

Record

38%

1247-2019 (3266)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.