Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$3.93

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 100¢

+73% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,394

Combined PnL+$11.54

Down7 traders

Total Value$22.79

Total Shares458

Combined PnL-$15.47

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$6.66	63% 373-217 (590)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	55% 3061-2517 (5578)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$354.2	$358.82	+$4.62	98% 3154-65 (3219)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 56¢	$34.6	$30	+$0.35	51% 1947-1837 (3784)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 71¢	$10.65	$10.58	-$0.08	54% 2076-1762 (3838)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 95¢	$9.34	$9.29	-$0.05	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 16.2¢	$15.77	$7.9	-$7.87	50% 4118-4199 (8317)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 22.7¢	$5.83	$5.92	+$0.09	46% 1306-1529 (2835)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 3.9¢	$8.14	$4.95	-$3.19	51% 2824-2718 (5542)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 50¢	$3	$3.03	+$0.03	41% 1354-1943 (3297)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$4.2	$2.85	-$1.35	52% 4757-4448 (9205)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.2¢	$0.55	$0.71	+$0.16	33% 917-1898 (2815)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 10.1¢	$1.12	$0.39	-$0.73	52% 2398-2181 (4579)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 1.7¢	$2.66	$0.08	-$2.58	38% 1247-2019 (3266)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.66

Record

63%

373-217 (590)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3061-2517 (5578)

hoodquant

Invested

$354.2

Value

$358.82

PnL

+$4.62

Record

98%

3154-65 (3219)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$34.6

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

1947-1837 (3784)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

2076-1762 (3838)

suntori<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.77

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$7.87

Record

50%

4118-4199 (8317)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.83

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

1306-1529 (2835)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.14

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$3.19

Record

51%

2824-2718 (5542)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

1354-1943 (3297)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.2

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$1.35

Record

52%

4757-4448 (9205)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.16

Record

33%

917-1898 (2815)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.73

Record

52%

2398-2181 (4579)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.66

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.58

Record

38%

1247-2019 (3266)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.