Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 57%
3 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$46.97
Smart Money Signal
12 of 21 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$20.93 | 63% 373-217 (590) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $704.55 | — | -$698.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $684.49 | $1.4K | +$677.38 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $507.78 | $491.18 | -$5.73 | 55% 3061-2517 (5578) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $252.6 | — | -$249.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $245.18 | $491.18 | +$243.3 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 44.6¢ | $141.27 | $158.87 | +$17.6 | 51% 2824-2718 (5542) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.6¢ | $73.46 | — | -$73.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $67.82 | $158.87 | +$91.05 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 66¢ | $100.22 | — | -$100.05 | 50% 4118-4199 (8317) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.6¢ | $26.17 | — | -$26.17 | 39% 562-884 (1446) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 38.3¢ | $13.45 | $35.13 | +$21.68 | 44% 1825-2359 (4184) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $34.76 | $65 | +$30.24 | 50% 1678-1678 (3356) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $6.8 | $13.56 | +$6.76 | 46% 1306-1529 (2835) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $34.83 | $42 | +$7.17 | 47% 1905-2153 (4058) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.3¢ | $12.25 | — | -$2.35 | 51% 1947-1837 (3784) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $17.64 | $18 | +$0.36 | 98% 3154-65 (3219) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $16.7 | $35 | +$18.3 | 47% 1865-2092 (3957) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $2.31 | — | -$2.31 | 52% 2398-2181 (4579) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $8.54 | $16.47 | +$7.93 | 63% 3744-2231 (5975) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $14.25 | $15 | +$0.75 | 67% 3166-1574 (4740) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 29.3¢ | $21.32 | — | -$15.56 | 51% 2993-2903 (5896) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.3¢ | $39 | — | +$6 | 54% 2076-1762 (3838) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $5.28 | $11 | +$5.72 | 58% 4886-3565 (8451) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.55 | $5.1 | +$2.55 | 64% 2224-1247 (3471) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $3.36 | $7 | +$3.64 | 51% 859-820 (1679) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $1.62 | $6.23 | +$4.61 | 38% 1247-2019 (3266) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.3¢ | $2.8 | — | +$3.02 | 50% 2222-2258 (4480) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.1¢ | $11.09 | — | -$11.09 | 52% 4757-4448 (9205) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $8.16 | — | -$8.16 | 48% 1846-2015 (3861) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$20.93
Record
63%
373-217 (590)
Both legs:
Invested
$507.78
Value
$491.18
PnL
-$5.73
Record
55%
3061-2517 (5578)
Both legs:
Invested
$141.27
Value
$158.87
PnL
+$17.6
Record
51%
2824-2718 (5542)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.22
Value
—
PnL
-$100.05
Record
50%
4118-4199 (8317)
Invested
$26.17
Value
—
PnL
-$26.17
Record
39%
562-884 (1446)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$13.45
Value
$35.13
PnL
+$21.68
Record
44%
1825-2359 (4184)
Invested
$34.76
Value
$65
PnL
+$30.24
Record
50%
1678-1678 (3356)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$13.56
PnL
+$6.76
Record
46%
1306-1529 (2835)
Invested
$34.83
Value
$42
PnL
+$7.17
Record
47%
1905-2153 (4058)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$12.25
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
51%
1947-1837 (3784)
Invested
$17.64
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.36
Record
98%
3154-65 (3219)
Invested
$16.7
Value
$35
PnL
+$18.3
Record
47%
1865-2092 (3957)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.31
Value
—
PnL
-$2.31
Record
52%
2398-2181 (4579)
Invested
$8.54
Value
$16.47
PnL
+$7.93
Record
63%
3744-2231 (5975)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.75
Record
67%
3166-1574 (4740)
Invested
$21.32
Value
—
PnL
-$15.56
Record
51%
2993-2903 (5896)
Invested
$39
Value
—
PnL
+$6
Record
54%
2076-1762 (3838)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.72
Record
58%
4886-3565 (8451)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$2.55
Record
64%
2224-1247 (3471)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$7
PnL
+$3.64
Record
51%
859-820 (1679)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.62
Value
$6.23
PnL
+$4.61
Record
38%
1247-2019 (3266)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
+$3.02
Record
50%
2222-2258 (4480)
Invested
$11.09
Value
—
PnL
-$11.09
Record
52%
4757-4448 (9205)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.16
Value
—
PnL
-$8.16
Record
48%
1846-2015 (3861)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
flippingsharks
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $35.13
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $65
rabadabadoo
Down — $13.56
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $42
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0