Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 8 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

8 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (40%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$14.05

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 20 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,689

Combined PnL-$5.52

Up12 traders

Total Value$308.98

Total Shares320

Combined PnL-$8.53

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.12	64% 368-211 (579)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$492.05	-$0.45	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$389.55	+$147.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$102.5	-$147.5
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$108.34	$108.4	+$0.05	51% 1235-1184 (2419)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$54.36	$54.64	+$0.27	98% 3131-65 (3196)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$43.61	$42.29	-$1.32	51% 2812-2714 (5526)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 98¢	$47.2	$39.97	-$7.19	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 85.4¢	$28.71	$24.42	-$1.76	49% 4099-4182 (8281)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$13.5	$14.85	+$1.35	49% 1087-1154 (2241)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Downavg 17.6¢	$9.79	$9.18	-$0.61	39% 559-877 (1436)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 96¢	$8.73	$8.87	+$0.14	67% 3145-1560 (4705)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 45¢	$5.4	$6.06	+$0.66	58% 4878-3558 (8436)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 98.7¢	$5.92	$5.97	+$0.05	41% 1336-1928 (3264)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 82¢	$4.92	$5.07	+$0.15	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 78¢	$5.65	$4.96	-$0.33	63% 3717-2213 (5930)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 62¢	$4.34	$4.86	+$0.52	50% 1672-1674 (3346)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$4.7	$4.3	-$0.39	54% 2059-1752 (3811)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.47	+$0.22	46% 1295-1519 (2814)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2.7¢	$1.14	$0.21	-$0.93	33% 909-1883 (2792)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 5.7¢	$2.33	$0.1	-$2.23	38% 1240-1996 (3236)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 6.4¢	$1.02	$0.08	-$0.94	52% 2385-2166 (4551)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.9	$0.01	-$1.89	48% 1833-1999 (3832)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.12

Record

64%

368-211 (579)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$492.05

PnL

-$0.45

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$147.05

Down$25050¢-$147.5

0x50f7

Invested

$108.34

Value

$108.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

1235-1184 (2419)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$54.36

Value

$54.64

PnL

+$0.27

Record

98%

3131-65 (3196)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$43.61

Value

$42.29

PnL

-$1.32

Record

51%

2812-2714 (5526)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$47.2

Value

$39.97

PnL

-$7.19

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$28.71

Value

$24.42

PnL

-$1.76

Record

49%

4099-4182 (8281)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.5

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$1.35

Record

49%

1087-1154 (2241)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.79

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$0.61

Record

39%

559-877 (1436)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.87

PnL

+$0.14

Record

67%

3145-1560 (4705)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.66

Record

58%

4878-3558 (8436)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

1336-1928 (3264)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.65

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.33

Record

63%

3717-2213 (5930)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.52

Record

50%

1672-1674 (3346)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.39

Record

54%

2059-1752 (3811)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.22

Record

46%

1295-1519 (2814)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.93

Record

33%

909-1883 (2792)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.33

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.23

Record

38%

1240-1996 (3236)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.94

Record

52%

2385-2166 (4551)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.89

Record

48%

1833-1999 (3832)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 20 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.