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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Up 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$639.8

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,884

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down5 traders

Total Value$149.8

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$30.08

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	64% 368-211 (579)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$0.4	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$247.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$248	—	-$248
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$74.63	$94.23	+$25.36	49% 4099-4182 (8281)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 30.1¢	$59.97	—	-$46.07	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 58¢	$26.03	$30	+$3.97	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$14.83	$14.31	-$0.52	54% 2059-1752 (3811)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$14.23	—	-$14.23	51% 2976-2895 (5871)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 92¢	$5.6	$6.09	+$0.49	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85¢	$4.4	$5.18	+$0.78	67% 3145-1560 (4705)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3.1¢	$5.21	—	-$5.21	33% 909-1883 (2792)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 7.2¢	$2.73	—	-$2.73	38% 1240-1996 (3236)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 7.4¢	$2.08	—	-$2.08	52% 2385-2166 (4551)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$1.91	—	-$1.91	39% 559-877 (1436)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

64%

368-211 (579)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$0.4

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Down$24550¢+$247.6

Up$24850¢-$248

Invested

$74.63

Value

$94.23

PnL

+$25.36

Record

49%

4099-4182 (8281)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$59.97

Value

—

PnL

-$46.07

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$26.03

Value

$30

PnL

+$3.97

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

Invested

$14.83

Value

$14.31

PnL

-$0.52

Record

54%

2059-1752 (3811)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$14.23

Value

—

PnL

-$14.23

Record

51%

2976-2895 (5871)

Invested

$5.6

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$0.49

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.78

Record

67%

3145-1560 (4705)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

—

PnL

-$5.21

Record

33%

909-1883 (2792)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

—

PnL

-$2.73

Record

38%

1240-1996 (3236)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.08

Value

—

PnL

-$2.08

Record

52%

2385-2166 (4551)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

—

PnL

-$1.91

Record

39%

559-877 (1436)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x35644a4d...837166

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794630600

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Down — $94.23

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

blue.birds

Down — $30

ply-pm2

Down — $14.31

soswald1

Up — $0

suntori

Down — $6.09

asdaefef

Down — $5.18

pspspsps5

Up — $0

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