Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 52%
6 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$879.79
Smart Money Signal
14 of 26 top traders (54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $889.57 | +$13.27 | 64% 368-211 (579) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $444.79 | $889.57 | +$646.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $446.71 | — | -$633.6 | |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $742.54 | $682.39 | -$60.15 | 51% 1235-1184 (2419) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 48.6¢ | $754.7 | — | -$606.37 | 51% 2976-2895 (5871) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $531.7 | $488.87 | +$5.87 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $249.47 | $488.87 | +$253.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.7¢ | $240.39 | — | -$247.95 | |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 9.5¢ | $71.86 | — | -$71.86 | 41% 1336-1928 (3264) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $75.14 | $84.46 | +$9.31 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $48.14 | $84.46 | +$36.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.2¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $76.95 | $79.72 | +$2.78 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.4¢ | $57.72 | $79.72 | +$22.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.5¢ | $19.23 | — | -$19.23 | |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $65.91 | $75 | +$9.09 | 48% 1833-1999 (3832) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $40.1 | $75 | +$34.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.2¢ | $25.81 | — | -$25.81 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $74.25 | $75 | +$0.75 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $50.76 | $80.3 | +$29.54 | 44% 1813-2341 (4154) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $59.38 | $58.3 | -$1.08 | 54% 2059-1752 (3811) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.5¢ | $43.5 | — | -$43.5 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $32.81 | $38 | +$5.19 | 33% 909-1883 (2792) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $22.81 | $38 | +$15.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 8.3¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 15.4¢ | $40.86 | — | -$40.86 | 50% 1672-1674 (3346) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $45.5 | $50.3 | +$4.8 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.3¢ | $84.2 | — | -$53.28 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $44.64 | $56.27 | +$11.63 | 60% 3298-2213 (5511) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $33 | — | -$33 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $15.2 | $27 | +$11.8 | 47% 1892-2135 (4027) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $18.09 | $19.29 | +$1.2 | 51% 2812-2714 (5526) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $14.32 | — | -$14.32 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.4¢ | $19.31 | $19.18 | -$0.13 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $12.92 | $15 | +$1.11 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 36.7¢ | $9.9 | $27 | +$17.1 | 51% 849-816 (1665) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $9.78 | $6.97 | -$2.81 | 46% 1295-1519 (2814) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$889.57
PnL
+$13.27
Record
64%
368-211 (579)
Both legs:
Invested
$742.54
Value
$682.39
PnL
-$60.15
Record
51%
1235-1184 (2419)
Invested
$754.7
Value
—
PnL
-$606.37
Record
51%
2976-2895 (5871)
Invested
$531.7
Value
$488.87
PnL
+$5.87
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.86
Value
—
PnL
-$71.86
Record
41%
1336-1928 (3264)
Invested
$75.14
Value
$84.46
PnL
+$9.31
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.95
Value
$79.72
PnL
+$2.78
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Both legs:
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$65.91
Value
$75
PnL
+$9.09
Record
48%
1833-1999 (3832)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.25
Value
$75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$50.76
Value
$80.3
PnL
+$29.54
Record
44%
1813-2341 (4154)
Invested
$59.38
Value
$58.3
PnL
-$1.08
Record
54%
2059-1752 (3811)
Invested
$43.5
Value
—
PnL
-$43.5
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$32.81
Value
$38
PnL
+$5.19
Record
33%
909-1883 (2792)
Both legs:
Invested
$40.86
Value
—
PnL
-$40.86
Record
50%
1672-1674 (3346)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$50.3
PnL
+$4.8
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$84.2
Value
—
PnL
-$53.28
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$44.64
Value
$56.27
PnL
+$11.63
Record
60%
3298-2213 (5511)
Invested
$33
Value
—
PnL
-$33
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$27
PnL
+$11.8
Record
47%
1892-2135 (4027)
Invested
$18.09
Value
$19.29
PnL
+$1.2
Record
51%
2812-2714 (5526)
Invested
$14.32
Value
—
PnL
-$14.32
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)
Invested
$19.31
Value
$19.18
PnL
-$0.13
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
Invested
$12.92
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.11
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$27
PnL
+$17.1
Record
51%
849-816 (1665)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$6.97
PnL
-$2.81
Record
46%
1295-1519 (2814)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Down — $682.39
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $75
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $80.3