Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 58%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$31.16
Smart Money Signal
11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0.84 | 64% 368-211 (579) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $503.02 | $497.02 | +$0.6 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $248.03 | $497.02 | +$250.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $379.93 | $384.14 | +$4.21 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 63.5¢ | $75.63 | $105.54 | +$29.91 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 38.6¢ | $15.21 | $30 | +$14.79 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $13.35 | $24.55 | +$11.2 | 44% 1813-2341 (4154) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98.3¢ | $22.8 | $22 | -$0.8 | 50% 2202-2243 (4445) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $21.21 | $22.86 | +$1.65 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $19.61 | $13 | -$0.67 | 38% 1240-1996 (3236) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $8.97 | $10.67 | +$1.7 | 54% 2059-1752 (3811) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $6.7 | — | -$6.7 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 22.5¢ | $9.03 | — | -$5.07 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $3.85 | $5 | +$1.15 | 47% 1892-2135 (4027) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 64% 2208-1239 (3447) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.1¢ | $18.77 | — | -$11.22 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 48% 1833-1999 (3832) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.7¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 39% 559-877 (1436) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1.03 | — | -$1.03 | 46% 1295-1519 (2814) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.4¢ | $2.15 | — | -$2.15 | 33% 909-1883 (2792) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 51% 2976-2895 (5871) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0.84
Record
64%
368-211 (579)
Invested
$503.02
Value
$497.02
PnL
+$0.6
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Both legs:
Invested
$379.93
Value
$384.14
PnL
+$4.21
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$75.63
Value
$105.54
PnL
+$29.91
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$30
PnL
+$14.79
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$13.35
Value
$24.55
PnL
+$11.2
Record
44%
1813-2341 (4154)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$22
PnL
-$0.8
Record
50%
2202-2243 (4445)
Invested
$21.21
Value
$22.86
PnL
+$1.65
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$19.61
Value
$13
PnL
-$0.67
Record
38%
1240-1996 (3236)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$10.67
PnL
+$1.7
Record
54%
2059-1752 (3811)
Invested
$6.7
Value
—
PnL
-$6.7
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)
Invested
$9.03
Value
—
PnL
-$5.07
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.15
Record
47%
1892-2135 (4027)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
64%
2208-1239 (3447)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$18.77
Value
—
PnL
-$11.22
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
48%
1833-1999 (3832)
Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
39%
559-877 (1436)
Invested
$1.03
Value
—
PnL
-$1.03
Record
46%
1295-1519 (2814)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
—
PnL
-$2.15
Record
33%
909-1883 (2792)
Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
51%
2976-2895 (5871)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $384.14
asdcaxz
Down — $105.54
blue.birds
Down — $30
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $24.55
dvasdkasodk
Down — $22
asdaefef
Down — $22.86
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $13
ply-pm2
Down — $10.67