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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

19

Down 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$571.62

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,610

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Up6 traders

Total Value$81.62

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$10.44

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	64% 368-211 (579)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$750	—	-$742.47	51% 2976-2895 (5871)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$506.18	$490	-$8.05	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$243.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$251.25	—	-$251.75
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$45.03	—	-$45.03	49% 4099-4182 (8281)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 94.2¢	$31.8	$23.36	-$1.3	63% 3717-2213 (5930)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98.9¢	$17.04	$16.02	-$1.02	67% 3145-1560 (4705)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 93.2¢	$15.13	$16.24	+$1.11	60% 3298-2213 (5511)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 95.5¢	$54.68	$15	+$4.97	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 38.3¢	$10.68	—	-$10.68	44% 1813-2341 (4154)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$5.6	—	-$5.6	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$5.85	—	-$5.85	54% 2059-1752 (3811)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 19.9¢	$6.08	—	-$6.08	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 36¢	$3.24	$9	+$5.76	58% 4878-3558 (8436)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	46% 1295-1519 (2814)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 54¢	$1.08	$2	+$0.92	48% 1833-1999 (3832)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$1.33	—	-$1.33	33% 909-1883 (2792)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Downavg 6.3¢	$3.59	—	-$3.59	39% 559-877 (1436)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 9.3¢	$3.67	—	-$3.67	52% 2385-2166 (4551)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 9.5¢	$5.06	—	-$5.06	38% 1240-1996 (3236)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$1.19	—	-$1.19	50% 2202-2243 (4445)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

64%

368-211 (579)

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$742.47

Record

51%

2976-2895 (5871)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.18

Value

$490

PnL

-$8.05

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$243.7

Down$251.2549.3¢-$251.75

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$45.03

Value

—

PnL

-$45.03

Record

49%

4099-4182 (8281)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$31.8

Value

$23.36

PnL

-$1.3

Record

63%

3717-2213 (5930)

Invested

$17.04

Value

$16.02

PnL

-$1.02

Record

67%

3145-1560 (4705)

Invested

$15.13

Value

$16.24

PnL

+$1.11

Record

60%

3298-2213 (5511)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$54.68

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.97

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$10.68

Value

—

PnL

-$10.68

Record

44%

1813-2341 (4154)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

—

PnL

-$5.6

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

—

PnL

-$5.85

Record

54%

2059-1752 (3811)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$6.08

Value

—

PnL

-$6.08

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

$9

PnL

+$5.76

Record

58%

4878-3558 (8436)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

46%

1295-1519 (2814)

Invested

$1.08

Value

$2

PnL

+$0.92

Record

48%

1833-1999 (3832)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

—

PnL

-$1.33

Record

33%

909-1883 (2792)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

—

PnL

-$3.59

Record

39%

559-877 (1436)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$3.67

Value

—

PnL

-$3.67

Record

52%

2385-2166 (4551)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

—

PnL

-$5.06

Record

38%

1240-1996 (3236)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.19

Value

—

PnL

-$1.19

Record

50%

2202-2243 (4445)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdd72b8cd...571af1

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794628200

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $23.36

asdaefef

Up — $16.02

aaa221

Up — $16.24

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $15

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

suntori

Down — $0

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