Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 53%
1 arb excluded
$756.27
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 64% 293-166 (459) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $750.15 | — | -$672.13 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $502.24 | $500 | +$3.45 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $247.25 | — | -$246.55 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 72¢ | $97.16 | $106.88 | +$9.72 | 49% 3898-3999 (7897) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $20.82 | $36.9 | +$16.08 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $14.4 | $30 | +$15.6 | 44% 1668-2150 (3818) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $19.78 | $23.33 | +$3.55 | 54% 1878-1606 (3484) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.1¢ | $38.27 | — | -$29.67 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $13.16 | $15 | +$1.84 | 52% 2202-2016 (4218) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $22 | $14 | -$3.15 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $18.23 | — | -$18.23 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $10 | +$0.4 | 66% 2874-1453 (4327) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 64.3¢ | $9.75 | $15.15 | +$5.4 | 47% 1726-1951 (3677) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $7.1 | — | -$7.1 | 47% 1691-1909 (3600) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 48% 1683-1811 (3494) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $5 | +$2.9 | 72% 1328-513 (1841) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $2.41 | — | -$2.41 | 50% 1135-1122 (2257) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.97 | — | -$1.97 | 32% 829-1726 (2555) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 38% 1119-1814 (2933) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
64%
293-166 (459)
Invested
$750.15
Value
—
PnL
-$672.13
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$502.24
Value
$500
PnL
+$3.45
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.16
Value
$106.88
PnL
+$9.72
Record
49%
3898-3999 (7897)
Invested
$20.82
Value
$36.9
PnL
+$16.08
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.6
Record
44%
1668-2150 (3818)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$23.33
PnL
+$3.55
Record
54%
1878-1606 (3484)
Invested
$38.27
Value
—
PnL
-$29.67
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.16
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.84
Record
52%
2202-2016 (4218)
Invested
$22
Value
$14
PnL
-$3.15
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
Invested
$18.23
Value
—
PnL
-$18.23
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.4
Record
66%
2874-1453 (4327)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$5.4
Record
47%
1726-1951 (3677)
Invested
$7.1
Value
—
PnL
-$7.1
Record
47%
1691-1909 (3600)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
48%
1683-1811 (3494)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.9
Record
72%
1328-513 (1841)
Invested
$2.41
Value
—
PnL
-$2.41
Record
50%
1135-1122 (2257)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.97
Value
—
PnL
-$1.97
Record
32%
829-1726 (2555)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
38%
1119-1814 (2933)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $106.88
suntori
Down — $36.9
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $30
ply-pm2
Down — $23.33
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $15
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $14