Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 45%
$1.4K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 22 top traders (45%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 64% 293-166 (459) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $505.46 | $492.01 | +$4.75 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 69.7¢ | $215.89 | $185.4 | -$30.49 | 49% 3898-3999 (7897) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $165.19 | $166.86 | +$1.67 | 98% 2839-60 (2899) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $127.27 | $144.53 | +$17.26 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 52.5¢ | $73.45 | $140 | +$66.55 | 50% 1904-1877 (3781) |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Downavg 44.8¢ | $135.38 | — | -$119.93 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $91.22 | — | -$91.22 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $61.3 | $64.95 | +$4.9 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 54.3¢ | $45.55 | $51.26 | +$5.71 | 54% 1878-1606 (3484) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $45.11 | $44 | +$9.46 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $62.12 | $34.46 | +$2.01 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 46.3¢ | $21.48 | $20.31 | +$8.66 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 47% 1691-1909 (3600) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.2¢ | $14.15 | — | -$14.15 | 38% 493-800 (1293) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.3¢ | $18.25 | — | -$12.65 | 48% 1683-1811 (3494) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $5.76 | $6 | +$0.24 | 52% 2202-2016 (4218) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.32 | — | -$4.32 | 44% 1668-2150 (3818) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $4.24 | — | -$4.24 | 72% 1328-513 (1841) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $5 | +$3.55 | 49% 2006-2058 (4064) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $7.1 | — | -$5.48 | 66% 2874-1453 (4327) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $20.57 | — | -$20.57 | 47% 1726-1951 (3677) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
64%
293-166 (459)
Invested
$505.46
Value
$492.01
PnL
+$4.75
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$215.89
Value
$185.4
PnL
-$30.49
Record
49%
3898-3999 (7897)
Invested
$165.19
Value
$166.86
PnL
+$1.67
Record
98%
2839-60 (2899)
Invested
$127.27
Value
$144.53
PnL
+$17.26
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Invested
$73.45
Value
$140
PnL
+$66.55
Record
50%
1904-1877 (3781)
Invested
$135.38
Value
—
PnL
-$119.93
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
Invested
$91.22
Value
—
PnL
-$91.22
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$61.3
Value
$64.95
PnL
+$4.9
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$45.55
Value
$51.26
PnL
+$5.71
Record
54%
1878-1606 (3484)
Invested
$45.11
Value
$44
PnL
+$9.46
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$62.12
Value
$34.46
PnL
+$2.01
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Invested
$21.48
Value
$20.31
PnL
+$8.66
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
47%
1691-1909 (3600)
Invested
$14.15
Value
—
PnL
-$14.15
Record
38%
493-800 (1293)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$18.25
Value
—
PnL
-$12.65
Record
48%
1683-1811 (3494)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.76
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.24
Record
52%
2202-2016 (4218)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.32
Value
—
PnL
-$4.32
Record
44%
1668-2150 (3818)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$4.24
Value
—
PnL
-$4.24
Record
72%
1328-513 (1841)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.55
Record
49%
2006-2058 (4064)
Invested
$7.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.48
Record
66%
2874-1453 (4327)
Invested
$20.57
Value
—
PnL
-$20.57
Record
47%
1726-1951 (3677)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $492.01
asdcaxz
Up — $185.4
hoodquant
Up — $166.86
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $144.53
uninformedfloww
Up — $140
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $64.95
ply-pm2
Up — $51.26