Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 45%
1 arb excluded
$869.68
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 20 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 64% 293-166 (459) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.8¢ | $509.56 | $490.01 | -$1.6 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $245.58 | $490.01 | +$248.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.8¢ | $249.07 | — | -$249.8 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $75.24 | $76 | +$0.76 | 98% 2839-60 (2899) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $83.44 | $70.22 | -$13.22 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $51.3 | $69.49 | +$18.19 | 49% 3898-3999 (7897) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 73.3¢ | $34.45 | $29.25 | -$0.45 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 58.8¢ | $24.51 | $26.21 | +$1.7 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $21.17 | $28.55 | +$7.37 | 54% 1878-1606 (3484) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $13.59 | $21 | +$9.03 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 49% 1538-1576 (3114) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $13.52 | $14.23 | +$0.71 | 66% 2874-1453 (4327) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $10.46 | $22.73 | +$12.27 | 38% 493-800 (1293) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.3¢ | $11.1 | — | -$11.1 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $9.24 | $12 | +$2.76 | 47% 1691-1909 (3600) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $3.9 | $10 | +$6.1 | 44% 1668-2150 (3818) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.6¢ | $3.92 | — | -$3.92 | 52% 2202-2016 (4218) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $2.48 | — | -$2.48 | 49% 2006-2058 (4064) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $2.25 | — | -$2.25 | 38% 1119-1814 (2933) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 40% 1121-1688 (2809) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.1¢ | $58.71 | — | -$58.71 | 50% 1904-1877 (3781) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.4¢ | $17.58 | — | +$5.37 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
64%
293-166 (459)
Invested
$509.56
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$1.6
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.24
Value
$76
PnL
+$0.76
Record
98%
2839-60 (2899)
Invested
$83.44
Value
$70.22
PnL
-$13.22
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$69.49
PnL
+$18.19
Record
49%
3898-3999 (7897)
Invested
$34.45
Value
$29.25
PnL
-$0.45
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$24.51
Value
$26.21
PnL
+$1.7
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
Invested
$21.17
Value
$28.55
PnL
+$7.37
Record
54%
1878-1606 (3484)
Invested
$13.59
Value
$21
PnL
+$9.03
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
49%
1538-1576 (3114)
Invested
$13.52
Value
$14.23
PnL
+$0.71
Record
66%
2874-1453 (4327)
Invested
$10.46
Value
$22.73
PnL
+$12.27
Record
38%
493-800 (1293)
Invested
$11.1
Value
—
PnL
-$11.1
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$9.24
Value
$12
PnL
+$2.76
Record
47%
1691-1909 (3600)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.1
Record
44%
1668-2150 (3818)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.92
Value
—
PnL
-$3.92
Record
52%
2202-2016 (4218)
Invested
$2.48
Value
—
PnL
-$2.48
Record
49%
2006-2058 (4064)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.25
Value
—
PnL
-$2.25
Record
38%
1119-1814 (2933)
Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
40%
1121-1688 (2809)
Invested
$58.71
Value
—
PnL
-$58.71
Record
50%
1904-1877 (3781)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$17.58
Value
—
PnL
+$5.37
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $76
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $70.22
asdcaxz
Down — $69.49
blue.birds
Down — $29.25
rabadabadoo
Down — $26.21
ply-pm2
Down — $28.55
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $21
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0