Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 40%
$777.71
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 20 top traders (40%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 64% 293-166 (459) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$699.84 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $507.8 | $500 | +$4.23 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 89.3¢ | $86.46 | $72.3 | -$14.16 | 49% 3898-3999 (7897) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $60.66 | $61.27 | +$0.61 | 98% 2839-60 (2899) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $37.12 | $34.35 | -$2.77 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $36.16 | $30 | -$6.16 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $26.25 | $30 | +$3.75 | 54% 1878-1606 (3484) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $20.52 | $21.24 | +$0.72 | 66% 2874-1453 (4327) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $73.94 | — | -$22.41 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $10.5 | $10 | -$0.5 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $5.82 | $6 | +$0.18 | 64% 2024-1152 (3176) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $5 | +$0.65 | 72% 1328-513 (1841) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $4.27 | $5.56 | +$1.29 | 60% 3075-2056 (5131) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $3.25 | $2 | -$1.03 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.7¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 52% 2202-2016 (4218) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 49% 2006-2058 (4064) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.4¢ | $94.29 | — | -$94.29 | 50% 1904-1877 (3781) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $1.43 | — | -$1.43 | 38% 1119-1814 (2933) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
64%
293-166 (459)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$699.84
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$507.8
Value
$500
PnL
+$4.23
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$86.46
Value
$72.3
PnL
-$14.16
Record
49%
3898-3999 (7897)
Invested
$60.66
Value
$61.27
PnL
+$0.61
Record
98%
2839-60 (2899)
Invested
$37.12
Value
$34.35
PnL
-$2.77
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Invested
$36.16
Value
$30
PnL
-$6.16
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.75
Record
54%
1878-1606 (3484)
Invested
$20.52
Value
$21.24
PnL
+$0.72
Record
66%
2874-1453 (4327)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$73.94
Value
—
PnL
-$22.41
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.5
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.18
Record
64%
2024-1152 (3176)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
72%
1328-513 (1841)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$5.56
PnL
+$1.29
Record
60%
3075-2056 (5131)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$2
PnL
-$1.03
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
2202-2016 (4218)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
49%
2006-2058 (4064)
Invested
$94.29
Value
—
PnL
-$94.29
Record
50%
1904-1877 (3781)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
—
PnL
-$1.43
Record
38%
1119-1814 (2933)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
asdcaxz
Down — $72.3
hoodquant
Down — $61.27
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $34.35
blue.birds
Down — $30
ply-pm2
Down — $30
asdaefef
Down — $21.24
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0