Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
28
Up 42%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 28 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 64% 293-166 (459) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $507.76 | $490 | -$4.1 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.8¢ | $154.51 | $165 | +$23.39 | 52% 4550-4257 (8807) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $105.28 | $110.05 | +$5.43 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 39.7¢ | $130.48 | $89.01 | -$41.47 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.3¢ | $61.66 | $89.01 | +$27.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.7¢ | $68.82 | — | -$68.82 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.6¢ | $113.39 | $72.12 | +$0.1 | 51% 1762-1676 (3438) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 37.6¢ | $22.6 | $60.03 | +$37.43 | 47% 141-156 (297) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $55.35 | $50 | -$5.34 | 49% 3898-3999 (7897) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $32.41 | $59 | +$26.59 | 49% 1538-1576 (3114) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $29.02 | $28.9 | -$0.13 | 46% 1189-1389 (2578) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $26.44 | $28.1 | +$1.66 | 47% 1726-1951 (3677) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 41.4¢ | $40.72 | — | -$40.72 | 54% 1878-1606 (3484) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.8¢ | $16.48 | — | -$16.48 | 47% 1691-1909 (3600) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $14.8 | $15 | +$0.2 | 52% 2202-2016 (4218) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $17.63 | $17.52 | +$18.23 | 60% 3075-2056 (5131) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $7.36 | $8 | +$0.64 | 98% 2839-60 (2899) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $8.67 | — | -$8.67 | 48% 1683-1811 (3494) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $6.68 | $12.68 | +$6 | 51% 624-605 (1229) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $4.32 | $6 | +$1.68 | 40% 1121-1688 (2809) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $3.01 | — | -$3.01 | 64% 2024-1152 (3176) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $29.75 | $3 | -$16.82 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $3.04 | — | -$3.04 | 38% 1131-1839 (2970) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.1¢ | $5.9 | — | -$5.9 | 49% 2006-2058 (4064) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 66% 2874-1453 (4327) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $3.9 | — | -$3.9 | 44% 1668-2150 (3818) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
64%
293-166 (459)
Invested
$507.76
Value
$490
PnL
-$4.1
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Invested
$154.51
Value
$165
PnL
+$23.39
Record
52%
4550-4257 (8807)
Invested
$105.28
Value
$110.05
PnL
+$5.43
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$130.48
Value
$89.01
PnL
-$41.47
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$113.39
Value
$72.12
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
1762-1676 (3438)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$22.6
Value
$60.03
PnL
+$37.43
Record
47%
141-156 (297)
Invested
$55.35
Value
$50
PnL
-$5.34
Record
49%
3898-3999 (7897)
Invested
$32.41
Value
$59
PnL
+$26.59
Record
49%
1538-1576 (3114)
Invested
$29.02
Value
$28.9
PnL
-$0.13
Record
46%
1189-1389 (2578)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$28.1
PnL
+$1.66
Record
47%
1726-1951 (3677)
Invested
$40.72
Value
—
PnL
-$40.72
Record
54%
1878-1606 (3484)
Invested
$16.48
Value
—
PnL
-$16.48
Record
47%
1691-1909 (3600)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
2202-2016 (4218)
Invested
$17.63
Value
$17.52
PnL
+$18.23
Record
60%
3075-2056 (5131)
Invested
$7.36
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.64
Record
98%
2839-60 (2899)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
—
PnL
-$8.67
Record
48%
1683-1811 (3494)
Invested
$6.68
Value
$12.68
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
624-605 (1229)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.68
Record
40%
1121-1688 (2809)
Invested
$3.01
Value
—
PnL
-$3.01
Record
64%
2024-1152 (3176)
Invested
$29.75
Value
$3
PnL
-$16.82
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
Invested
$3.04
Value
—
PnL
-$3.04
Record
38%
1131-1839 (2970)
Invested
$5.9
Value
—
PnL
-$5.9
Record
49%
2006-2058 (4064)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
66%
2874-1453 (4327)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
—
PnL
-$3.9
Record
44%
1668-2150 (3818)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $490
blue.birds
Down — $165
soswald1
Down — $110.05
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $72.12
wowitsamazing
Down — $60.03
asdcaxz
Down — $50
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $59
rabadabadoo
Down — $28.9