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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

12

Up 82%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$21.71

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 12 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$991.28

Total Shares991

Combined PnL+$47.26

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares247

Combined PnL-$25.55

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.54	64% 293-166 (459)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$737.77	—	-$747.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$735.45	$1.5K	+$746.63
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$750	$750	+$5.04	51% 2752-2659 (5411)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$368.85	—	-$369.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$375	$750	+$375
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$532.9	$538.28	+$5.38	72% 1328-513 (1841)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$504.6	$510	+$10.8	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	—	-$244.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$254.6	$510	+$255.4
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.1¢	$265.13	$270.3	+$5.17	98% 2839-60 (2899)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.3¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	32% 829-1726 (2555)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 75.3¢	$94.1	$105	+$12.5	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$34.37	$46	+$11.63	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
└ Down leg	Downavg 5.3¢	$7.08	—	-$7.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.3¢	$27.29	$46	+$18.71
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$18.6	$24.05	+$5.45	49% 3898-3999 (7897)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 49¢	$13.9	$15	+$1.1	54% 1878-1606 (3484)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$10.79	$23.65	+$12.86	49% 1538-1576 (3114)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2.5	$5	+$2.5	44% 1668-2150 (3818)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 67¢	$3.35	$5	+$1.65	63% 3391-2033 (5424)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 87¢	$4.35	$5	+$0.65	66% 2874-1453 (4327)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$2.47	—	-$2.47	38% 1119-1814 (2933)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$23.36	—	-$20.44	46% 2104-2463 (4567)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.54

Record

64%

293-166 (459)

Both legs:

Down$737.7750¢-$747.17

Up$735.4550¢+$746.63

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$750

Value

$750

PnL

+$5.04

Record

51%

2752-2659 (5411)

Both legs:

Down$368.8550¢-$369.96

Up$37550¢+$375

Invested

$532.9

Value

$538.28

PnL

+$5.38

Record

72%

1328-513 (1841)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$504.6

Value

$510

PnL

+$10.8

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Down$24550¢-$244.6

Up$254.649.9¢+$255.4

Invested

$265.13

Value

$270.3

PnL

+$5.17

Record

98%

2839-60 (2899)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

—

PnL

-$2.64

Record

32%

829-1726 (2555)

Invested

$94.1

Value

$105

PnL

+$12.5

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$34.37

Value

$46

PnL

+$11.63

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

Both legs:

Down$7.085.3¢-$7.08

Up$27.2959.3¢+$18.71

Invested

$18.6

Value

$24.05

PnL

+$5.45

Record

49%

3898-3999 (7897)

Invested

$13.9

Value

$15

PnL

+$1.1

Record

54%

1878-1606 (3484)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$10.79

Value

$23.65

PnL

+$12.86

Record

49%

1538-1576 (3114)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

44%

1668-2150 (3818)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.65

Record

63%

3391-2033 (5424)

Invested

$4.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.65

Record

66%

2874-1453 (4327)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.47

Value

—

PnL

-$2.47

Record

38%

1119-1814 (2933)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$23.36

Value

—

PnL

-$20.44

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 12 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x37405830...e1a807

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794591600

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

BoneOhio

Up — $538.28

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $270.3

pspspsps5

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $105

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Up — $24.05

ply-pm2

Up — $15

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