Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Down 42%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 24 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 64% 280-155 (435) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $518.65 | $490 | -$2.56 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $245.86 | — | -$249.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $247.59 | $490 | +$246.64 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 32.8¢ | $525.2 | — | -$386.82 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.1¢ | $197.91 | $201.69 | +$3.78 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 67.5¢ | $178.38 | $196.81 | +$21.4 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $172.33 | $150.45 | -$21.69 | 50% 2434-2391 (4825) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 60.9¢ | $128.21 | $108.26 | -$0.96 | 49% 3855-3967 (7822) |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 72¢ | $127.76 | $98.79 | -$28.97 | 54% 1831-1588 (3419) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $50.82 | $44.52 | +$1.1 | 46% 1165-1368 (2533) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $35.6 | $35 | -$0.6 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.2¢ | $25.88 | — | -$25.88 | 51% 2709-2618 (5327) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $22.01 | $35.5 | +$13.49 | 38% 480-776 (1256) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $19.39 | $41.8 | +$22.41 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $19.8 | $20.2 | +$0.4 | 47% 1170-1297 (2467) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 71.1¢ | $15.2 | $18 | +$1.89 | 62% 3328-1998 (5326) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 79.6¢ | $15.93 | $20.01 | +$4.08 | 60% 3027-2022 (5049) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $12.31 | $11 | -$1.31 | 52% 2155-1994 (4149) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $7.1 | $10 | +$2.9 | 47% 1647-1881 (3528) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.1¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 38% 1088-1781 (2869) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 27.2¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 44% 1633-2119 (3752) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $10.1 | — | -$10.1 | 48% 1655-1778 (3433) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 64% 1988-1133 (3121) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.3¢ | $4.08 | — | -$4.08 | 49% 1967-2021 (3988) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $12.24 | — | -$12.24 | 47% 1686-1913 (3599) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.1¢ | $4.19 | — | -$4.19 | 66% 2821-1429 (4250) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
64%
280-155 (435)
Invested
$518.65
Value
$490
PnL
-$2.56
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Both legs:
Invested
$525.2
Value
—
PnL
-$386.82
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
Invested
$197.91
Value
$201.69
PnL
+$3.78
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$178.38
Value
$196.81
PnL
+$21.4
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$172.33
Value
$150.45
PnL
-$21.69
Record
50%
2434-2391 (4825)
Invested
$128.21
Value
$108.26
PnL
-$0.96
Record
49%
3855-3967 (7822)
Invested
$127.76
Value
$98.79
PnL
-$28.97
Record
54%
1831-1588 (3419)
Invested
$50.82
Value
$44.52
PnL
+$1.1
Record
46%
1165-1368 (2533)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$35.6
Value
$35
PnL
-$0.6
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$25.88
Value
—
PnL
-$25.88
Record
51%
2709-2618 (5327)
Invested
$22.01
Value
$35.5
PnL
+$13.49
Record
38%
480-776 (1256)
Invested
$19.39
Value
$41.8
PnL
+$22.41
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$20.2
PnL
+$0.4
Record
47%
1170-1297 (2467)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$18
PnL
+$1.89
Record
62%
3328-1998 (5326)
Invested
$15.93
Value
$20.01
PnL
+$4.08
Record
60%
3027-2022 (5049)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.31
Value
$11
PnL
-$1.31
Record
52%
2155-1994 (4149)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.9
Record
47%
1647-1881 (3528)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
38%
1088-1781 (2869)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
44%
1633-2119 (3752)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$10.1
Value
—
PnL
-$10.1
Record
48%
1655-1778 (3433)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
64%
1988-1133 (3121)
Invested
$4.08
Value
—
PnL
-$4.08
Record
49%
1967-2021 (3988)
Invested
$12.24
Value
—
PnL
-$12.24
Record
47%
1686-1913 (3599)
Invested
$4.19
Value
—
PnL
-$4.19
Record
66%
2821-1429 (4250)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $201.69
blue.birds
Up — $196.81
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $150.45
asdcaxz
Up — $108.26
ply-pm2
Up — $98.79
rabadabadoo
Up — $44.52
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $35