Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 35%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 17 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 64% 280-155 (435) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $507.8 | $510 | +$4.6 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $257.8 | $510 | +$252.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$247.6 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $425.67 | $431.03 | +$5.36 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 47.5¢ | $111.15 | — | -$111.15 | 49% 1499-1549 (3048) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $34.44 | $55.92 | +$22.19 | 49% 3855-3967 (7822) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $38.28 | $28.29 | -$9.99 | 50% 1120-1110 (2230) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $13.8 | $15 | +$2 | 62% 3328-1998 (5326) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $13.75 | $18.09 | +$4.34 | 60% 3027-2022 (5049) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $12.68 | $17 | +$4.32 | 54% 1831-1588 (3419) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $6.05 | $8.77 | +$2.72 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $5.58 | $6 | +$0.42 | 39% 1076-1670 (2746) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $5.94 | $11 | +$5.06 | 58% 4758-3485 (8243) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $5 | +$0.45 | 52% 2155-1994 (4149) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $4.5 | $5.11 | +$0.61 | 66% 2821-1429 (4250) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.3¢ | $20.02 | — | -$20.02 | 38% 480-776 (1256) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 72% 1307-501 (1808) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.6¢ | $1.97 | — | -$1.97 | 32% 810-1702 (2512) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 38% 1088-1781 (2869) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
64%
280-155 (435)
Invested
$507.8
Value
$510
PnL
+$4.6
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Both legs:
Invested
$425.67
Value
$431.03
PnL
+$5.36
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$111.15
Value
—
PnL
-$111.15
Record
49%
1499-1549 (3048)
Invested
$34.44
Value
$55.92
PnL
+$22.19
Record
49%
3855-3967 (7822)
Invested
$38.28
Value
$28.29
PnL
-$9.99
Record
50%
1120-1110 (2230)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$2
Record
62%
3328-1998 (5326)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$18.09
PnL
+$4.34
Record
60%
3027-2022 (5049)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$17
PnL
+$4.32
Record
54%
1831-1588 (3419)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$8.77
PnL
+$2.72
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.42
Record
39%
1076-1670 (2746)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.06
Record
58%
4758-3485 (8243)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.45
Record
52%
2155-1994 (4149)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.61
Record
66%
2821-1429 (4250)
Invested
$20.02
Value
—
PnL
-$20.02
Record
38%
480-776 (1256)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
72%
1307-501 (1808)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.97
Value
—
PnL
-$1.97
Record
32%
810-1702 (2512)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
38%
1088-1781 (2869)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $431.03
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $55.92
0x50f7
Down — $28.29
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $15
aaa221
Down — $18.09
ply-pm2
Down — $17
blue.birds
Down — $8.77