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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

18

Up 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$922.55

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,145
Combined PnL$-1.5K
Down7 traders
Total Value$422.55
Total Shares423
Combined PnL+$31.53
Up — 61%Down — 39%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

64%

280-155 (435)

BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$512.95

Value

$500

PnL

-$5.8

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

Both legs:

Down$252.550.5¢+$247.1
Up$250.3950.1¢-$252.9
HO
hoodquant
Down

Invested

$296.83

Value

$299.83

PnL

+$3

Record

98%

2789-58 (2847)

AS
asdcaxz<$100
Down

Invested

$26.65

Value

$59.13

PnL

+$32.48

Record

49%

3855-3967 (7822)

PB
PBot-6CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$22.64

Value

—

PnL

-$22.64

Record

51%

609-588 (1197)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$21.23

Value

$23

PnL

+$1.77

Record

54%

1831-1588 (3419)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$18.31

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.73

Record

62%

3328-1998 (5326)

FL
flippingsharksCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$12.85

Value

—

PnL

-$12.85

Record

38%

480-776 (1256)

PB
PBot-5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.64

Value

—

PnL

-$8.64

Record

49%

993-1031 (2024)

BL
blue.birds<$100
Down

Invested

$12.59

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$4.19

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$8.15

Value

$7.19

PnL

-$0.96

Record

66%

2821-1429 (4250)

SO
soswald1<$100
Down

Invested

$7.31

Value

$6

PnL

-$1.31

Record

51%

2709-2618 (5327)

RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.82

Value

—

PnL

-$1.82

Record

46%

1165-1368 (2533)

ohioismCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.61

Value

—

PnL

-$0.61

Record

48%

1655-1778 (3433)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.05

Value

—

PnL

-$3.05

Record

38%

1088-1781 (2869)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.55

Value

—

PnL

-$0.55

Record

52%

2155-1994 (4149)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.56

Value

—

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

1499-1549 (3048)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$46.59

Value

—

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

1727-1644 (3371)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$73.58

Value

—

PnL

-$73.58

Record

50%

1861-1835 (3696)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x0fe9bfd2...6a9060
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794586200

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.4K
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$5.8
HO

hoodquant

Down — $299.83

+$3
AS

asdcaxz

Down — $59.13

+$32.48
PB

PBot-6

CTR

Up — $0

-$22.64
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $23

+$1.77
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $19

+$0.73
FL

flippingsharks

CTR

Up — $0

-$12.85
PB

PBot-5

CTR

Up — $0

-$8.64
BL

blue.birds

Down — $8.4

-$4.19
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