Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$161.51

Smart Money Signal

16 of 20 top traders (80%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$858.95

Total Shares859

Combined PnL+$125.73

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares804

Combined PnL-$287.24

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$28.56	64% 280-155 (435)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$604.56	—	-$653.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$595.57	$1.2K	+$625.34
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$750	$679.72	+$2.96	51% 2709-2618 (5327)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$333.09	—	-$336.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$339.86	$679.72	+$339.3
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$516.02	$498.33	+$4.13	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$245.69	—	-$247.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$249.65	$498.33	+$251.63
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 44.8¢	$196.86	$343.06	+$146.2	49% 1499-1549 (3048)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13¢	$43.16	—	-$43.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$153.7	$343.06	+$189.36
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$285.37	$308.67	+$23.3	52% 4514-4226 (8740)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$81.48	—	-$81.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$203.88	$308.67	+$104.78
HO hoodquant	Upavg 96.8¢	$240.39	$248.45	+$8.05	98% 2789-58 (2847)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 64¢	$152.89	$127.14	-$21.7	50% 2434-2391 (4825)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$113.97	$131.03	+$17.06	49% 3855-3967 (7822)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$73.46	$131.03	+$57.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$40.51	—	-$40.51
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$79.41	$92.5	+$15.05	46% 1165-1368 (2533)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$76.39	—	-$76.39	49% 993-1031 (2024)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$52.12	$56.8	+$4.68	54% 1831-1588 (3419)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$30.25	—	-$30.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$21.87	$56.8	+$34.93
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$53.87	$61	+$7.13	47% 1686-1913 (3599)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$22.74	—	-$22.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$31.13	$61	+$29.87
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 87¢	$37.07	$42.61	+$5.54	47% 1170-1297 (2467)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 55.5¢	$124.7	$35	+$17.49	51% 1727-1644 (3371)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 43¢	$21.37	$33.17	+$14.47	47% 1647-1881 (3528)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$30.99	$33.94	+$2.95	66% 2821-1429 (4250)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 51¢	$32.74	$50	+$17.26	51% 609-588 (1197)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$27.83	$34.04	+$6.21	49% 1967-2021 (3988)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 95.3¢	$42.76	$29.88	+$2.75	62% 3328-1998 (5326)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 47¢	$29.4	$62.56	+$33.16	38% 480-776 (1256)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$33.25	—	-$30.5	44% 1633-2119 (3752)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 41¢	$13.7	$30	+$16.3	48% 1655-1778 (3433)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 72¢	$17.38	$24.14	+$6.76	60% 3027-2022 (5049)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 85¢	$8.4	$6.59	-$1.81	46% 2065-2415 (4480)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 57¢	$2.83	$3	+$0.17	64% 1988-1133 (3121)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$28.56

Record

64%

280-155 (435)

Both legs:

Down$604.5650¢-$653.9

Up$595.5750¢+$625.34

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$750

Value

$679.72

PnL

+$2.96

Record

51%

2709-2618 (5327)

Both legs:

Down$333.0950¢-$336.33

Up$339.8650¢+$339.3

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$516.02

Value

$498.33

PnL

+$4.13

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

Both legs:

Down$245.6949.1¢-$247.5

Up$249.6550.1¢+$251.63

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$196.86

Value

$343.06

PnL

+$146.2

Record

49%

1499-1549 (3048)

Both legs:

Down$43.1613¢-$43.16

Up$153.744.8¢+$189.36

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$285.37

Value

$308.67

PnL

+$23.3

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

Both legs:

Down$81.4828¢-$81.48

Up$203.8866.1¢+$104.78

hoodquant

Invested

$240.39

Value

$248.45

PnL

+$8.05

Record

98%

2789-58 (2847)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$152.89

Value

$127.14

PnL

-$21.7

Record

50%

2434-2391 (4825)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$113.97

Value

$131.03

PnL

+$17.06

Record

49%

3855-3967 (7822)

Both legs:

Up$73.4656.1¢+$57.57

Down$40.5152.2¢-$40.51

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$79.41

Value

$92.5

PnL

+$15.05

Record

46%

1165-1368 (2533)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$76.39

Value

—

PnL

-$76.39

Record

49%

993-1031 (2024)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$52.12

Value

$56.8

PnL

+$4.68

Record

54%

1831-1588 (3419)

Both legs:

Down$30.2541.7¢-$30.25

Up$21.8738.5¢+$34.93

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$53.87

Value

$61

PnL

+$7.13

Record

47%

1686-1913 (3599)

Both legs:

Down$22.7438.2¢-$22.74

Up$31.1351¢+$29.87

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$37.07

Value

$42.61

PnL

+$5.54

Record

47%

1170-1297 (2467)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$124.7

Value

$35

PnL

+$17.49

Record

51%

1727-1644 (3371)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$21.37

Value

$33.17

PnL

+$14.47

Record

47%

1647-1881 (3528)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$30.99

Value

$33.94

PnL

+$2.95

Record

66%

2821-1429 (4250)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$32.74

Value

$50

PnL

+$17.26

Record

51%

609-588 (1197)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$27.83

Value

$34.04

PnL

+$6.21

Record

49%

1967-2021 (3988)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$42.76

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$2.75

Record

62%

3328-1998 (5326)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$62.56

PnL

+$33.16

Record

38%

480-776 (1256)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.25

Value

—

PnL

-$30.5

Record

44%

1633-2119 (3752)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$16.3

Record

48%

1655-1778 (3433)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$17.38

Value

$24.14

PnL

+$6.76

Record

60%

3027-2022 (5049)

suntori<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$1.81

Record

46%

2065-2415 (4480)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.83

Value

PnL

+$0.17

Record

64%

1988-1133 (3121)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 20 top traders (80%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1250c033...353f5f

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794584400

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $248.45

+$8.05

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $127.14

-$21.7

asdcaxz

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.06

rabadabadoo

Up — $92.5

PBot-5

Down — $0