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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,100
Combined PnL$-1.1K
Down7 traders
Total Value$449.27
Total Shares449
Combined PnL+$51.36
Up — 50%Down — 50%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100
Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.71

Record

64%

155-88 (243)

Both legs:

Down$695.8650¢+$686.81
Up$693.2150¢-$686.1
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QU
QuantumPebble673CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

UN
uninformedfloww
Down

Invested

$109.07

Value

$125.56

PnL

+$24.01

Record

51%

1497-1460 (2957)

BL
blue.birds
Down

Invested

$106.62

Value

$91.9

PnL

-$14.72

Record

52%

4209-3942 (8151)

AS
asdcaxz<$100
Down

Invested

$66.45

Value

$85

PnL

+$18.55

Record

49%

3564-3672 (7236)

SO
soswald1<$100
Down

Invested

$62.6

Value

$80.33

PnL

+$17.73

Record

51%

2307-2260 (4567)

RA
rabadabadoo<$100
Down

Invested

$32.11

Value

$35.81

PnL

+$3.7

Record

46%

1005-1165 (2170)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$32.15

Value

—

PnL

-$32.15

Record

52%

1478-1365 (2843)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Down

Invested

$18.11

Value

$18.67

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

1267-1365 (2632)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$20.05

Value

—

PnL

-$20.05

Record

52%

1846-1725 (3571)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$14.96

Value

$12

PnL

+$1.54

Record

63%

2841-1704 (4545)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.18

Value

—

PnL

-$3.18

Record

38%

771-1268 (2039)

HC
HcrystallashCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

4631-3405 (8036)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.3

Value

—

PnL

-$6.3

Record

46%

1383-1602 (2985)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x17fbbf27...fa85c7
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794529200

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0.71
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
QU

QuantumPebble673

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
UN

uninformedfloww

Down — $125.56

+$24.01
BL

blue.birds

Down — $91.9

-$14.72
AS

asdcaxz

Down — $85

+$18.55
SO

soswald1

Down — $80.33

+$17.73
RA

rabadabadoo

Down — $35.81

+$3.7

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

-$32.15
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $18.67

+$0.56
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