Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 9 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$16.05

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,583

Combined PnL-$16.73

Down11 traders

Total Value$899.38

Total Shares925

Combined PnL+$0.68

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$1.23	63% 146-84 (230)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$750	$749.45	+$0.07	51% 2285-2228 (4513)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$51.95	$62.63	+$10.68	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 85.6¢	$47.72	$40.87	-$6.85	60% 2556-1710 (4266)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$13.69	$14.53	+$0.84	58% 4625-3399 (8024)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 93.7¢	$12.49	$12.2	-$0.29	66% 2393-1213 (3606)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 91¢	$12.41	$10.44	-$1.97	62% 2807-1686 (4493)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 98¢	$7.55	$6.48	-$1.07	39% 906-1439 (2345)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 88.6¢	$5.74	$5.87	+$0.12	52% 1825-1704 (3529)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.58	-$0.22	63% 1680-978 (2658)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$3.16	$3.4	+$0.24	47% 997-1147 (2144)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.48	+$0.13	47% 1428-1621 (3049)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.48	+$0.13	44% 1381-1765 (3146)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.93	-$0.02	46% 1368-1585 (2953)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$1.35	$1.28	-$0.07	48% 1377-1513 (2890)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$0.7	$0.68	-$0.02	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 19.4¢	$19.45	$0.5	-$18.95	49% 3543-3653 (7196)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.03	$0.05	+$0.02	33% 691-1396 (2087)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.23

Record

63%

146-84 (230)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$750

Value

$749.45

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$51.95

Value

$62.63

PnL

+$10.68

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$47.72

Value

$40.87

PnL

-$6.85

Record

60%

2556-1710 (4266)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$13.69

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$0.84

Record

58%

4625-3399 (8024)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$12.49

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$0.29

Record

66%

2393-1213 (3606)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$12.41

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$1.97

Record

62%

2807-1686 (4493)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$7.55

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$1.07

Record

39%

906-1439 (2345)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

1825-1704 (3529)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.22

Record

63%

1680-978 (2658)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

997-1147 (2144)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

1428-1621 (3049)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.13

Record

44%

1381-1765 (3146)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

1368-1585 (2953)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

1377-1513 (2890)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$19.45

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$18.95

Record

49%

3543-3653 (7196)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

691-1396 (2087)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.