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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Up 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$8.52

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,107

Combined PnL+$15.48

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$24

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.7	63% 146-84 (230)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$747.5	$1.5K	+$747.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$749.17	—	-$749.5
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$750	$750	+$5.5	51% 2285-2228 (4513)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$294.71	$295	+$0.3	49% 939-988 (1927)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$22.2	$26.03	+$8.83	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$19.5	—	-$19.5	52% 672-610 (1282)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 81¢	$21.3	$20	-$1.3	49% 3543-3653 (7196)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 81¢	$9.4	$10	+$0.6	62% 2807-1686 (4493)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 74¢	$4.44	$6	+$1.56	38% 748-1242 (1990)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$4.5	—	-$4.5	52% 4183-3927 (8110)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$1.7

Record

63%

146-84 (230)

Both legs:

Up$747.550¢+$747.8

Down$749.1750¢-$749.5

Invested

$750

Value

$750

PnL

+$5.5

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Invested

$294.71

Value

$295

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

939-988 (1927)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$8.83

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

—

PnL

-$19.5

Record

52%

672-610 (1282)

Invested

$21.3

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.3

Record

49%

3543-3653 (7196)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.6

Record

62%

2807-1686 (4493)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$6

PnL

+$1.56

Record

38%

748-1242 (1990)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9aac6d5...5e1315

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794525900

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Up — $750

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

0x50f7

Up — $295

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $26.03

Little-big

Down — $0

asdcaxz

Up — $20

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $10

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

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