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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 57%

Total Value

$129.82

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares3,291
Combined PnL$-3.2K
Down7 traders
Total Value$129.82
Total Shares130
Combined PnL+$18.64
Up — 53%Down — 47%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

63%

146-84 (230)

SO
soswald1CTR
Up

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$705.83

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QU
QuantumPebble673CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

AS
asdcaxz<$100
Down

Invested

$39.44

Value

$45

PnL

+$5.56

Record

49%

3543-3653 (7196)

BL
blue.birds<$100
Down

Invested

$37.14

Value

$46.84

PnL

+$9.7

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$12.6

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.4

Record

52%

1825-1704 (3529)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$11.67

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$0.53

Record

66%

2393-1213 (3606)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$6.93

Value

$7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

98%

2427-48 (2475)

HC
HcrystallashCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.33

Value

—

PnL

-$5.33

Record

58%

4625-3399 (8024)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.35

Record

62%

2807-1686 (4493)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.83

Value

—

PnL

-$1.83

Record

39%

906-1439 (2345)

RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.54

Value

—

PnL

-$0.54

Record

47%

997-1147 (2144)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

60%

2556-1710 (4266)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$12.6

Value

—

PnL

-$12.6

Record

44%

1381-1765 (3146)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xfc746a23...c281ec
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794525300

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.5K
SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$705.83
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
QU

QuantumPebble673

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
AS

asdcaxz

Down — $45

+$5.56
BL

blue.birds

Down — $46.84

+$9.7

MayorMamdani

Down — $15

+$2.4
AS

asdaefef

Down — $12.2

+$0.53
HO

hoodquant

Down — $7

+$0.07
HC

Hcrystallash

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.33
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