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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 67%

Total Value

$63.17

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 15 top traders (67%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,581

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Down5 traders

Total Value$63.17

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$4.99

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.4K	63% 146-84 (230)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 60.4¢	$31.85	$35	+$3.15	49% 3543-3653 (7196)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 35.6¢	$11.86	—	-$11.86	51% 2285-2228 (4513)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$8.2	—	-$8.2	52% 672-610 (1282)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98.9¢	$9.9	$10.01	+$0.11	66% 2393-1213 (3606)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 34.3¢	$7.65	—	-$7.65	46% 1368-1585 (2953)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 56¢	$4.01	$7.16	+$3.15	47% 997-1147 (2144)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 97¢	$5.82	$6	+$0.18	38% 748-1242 (1990)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 95¢	$6.7	$5	-$1.6	62% 2807-1686 (4493)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.31	—	-$0.31	52% 4183-3927 (8110)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.24	—	-$0.24	33% 691-1396 (2087)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.2	—	-$0.2	39% 906-1439 (2345)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$12	—	-$12	47% 1428-1621 (3049)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

63%

146-84 (230)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

Invested

$31.85

Value

$35

PnL

+$3.15

Record

49%

3543-3653 (7196)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$11.86

Value

—

PnL

-$11.86

Record

51%

2285-2228 (4513)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

—

PnL

-$8.2

Record

52%

672-610 (1282)

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$0.11

Record

66%

2393-1213 (3606)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

—

PnL

-$7.65

Record

46%

1368-1585 (2953)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$3.15

Record

47%

997-1147 (2144)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.18

Record

38%

748-1242 (1990)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$5

PnL

-$1.6

Record

62%

2807-1686 (4493)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$0.31

Value

—

PnL

-$0.31

Record

52%

4183-3927 (8110)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

—

PnL

-$0.24

Record

33%

691-1396 (2087)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

—

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

906-1439 (2345)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

—

PnL

-$12

Record

47%

1428-1621 (3049)

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 15 top traders (67%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1d7f0354...7012f7

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794525000

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Down — $35

soswald1

Up — $0

Little-big

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $10.01

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

rabadabadoo

Down — $7.16

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $6

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