Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 50%
$1.8K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$5.02 | 64% 140-79 (219) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$693.19 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $82.11 | $90 | +$7.89 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 96.4¢ | $59.87 | $58.55 | -$1.32 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $53.18 | $52 | -$1.18 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $56.2 | — | -$31 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 73.4¢ | $26.17 | $25.66 | +$1.09 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $24.5 | $25 | +$0.5 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $20.87 | $25.62 | +$4.75 | 47% 1411-1608 (3019) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $14.74 | $21.7 | +$6.96 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.7¢ | $43.5 | — | -$42.4 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $4 | $5.06 | +$1.06 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $5 | +$1.9 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 44% 1371-1749 (3120) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.2¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.3¢ | $7.51 | — | -$7.51 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 33% 686-1380 (2066) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$5.02
Record
64%
140-79 (219)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$693.19
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$82.11
Value
$90
PnL
+$7.89
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$59.87
Value
$58.55
PnL
-$1.32
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$53.18
Value
$52
PnL
-$1.18
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$56.2
Value
—
PnL
-$31
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$26.17
Value
$25.66
PnL
+$1.09
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$0.5
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$20.87
Value
$25.62
PnL
+$4.75
Record
47%
1411-1608 (3019)
Invested
$14.74
Value
$21.7
PnL
+$6.96
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$43.5
Value
—
PnL
-$42.4
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$1.06
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.9
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
44%
1371-1749 (3120)
Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$7.51
Value
—
PnL
-$7.51
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
33%
686-1380 (2066)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up — $1.5K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $90
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $58.55
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $52
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
rabadabadoo
Up — $25.66
hoodquant
Up — $25