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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

24

Down 78%

Total Value

$472.86

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 24 top traders (79%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Up5 traders

Total Value$472.86

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$3.94

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.4K	64% 140-79 (219)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 99¢	$429.82	$434.16	+$4.34	58% 4615-3393 (8008)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$31.84	—	-$31.84	51% 2266-2202 (4468)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 69¢	$36.97	$24.46	-$4.93	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$19.56	—	-$19.56	54% 1677-1430 (3107)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$12.9	—	-$12.9	50% 481-481 (962)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$15.29	—	-$15.29	46% 1350-1577 (2927)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$9.15	—	-$9.15	52% 1810-1682 (3492)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$2.8	$5.08	+$2.28	52% 4164-3913 (8077)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$3.8	—	-$3.8	47% 1411-1608 (3019)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 84¢	$4.2	$5	+$0.8	63% 2780-1667 (4447)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$3.03	—	-$3.03	46% 985-1137 (2122)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 65¢	$2.7	$4.16	+$1.46	66% 2369-1200 (3569)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$1.95	—	-$1.95	44% 1371-1749 (3120)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.5	—	-$0.5	49% 936-980 (1916)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$1.31	—	-$1.31	33% 686-1380 (2066)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 4.1¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	37% 716-1225 (1941)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 66.7¢	$138.3	—	-$138.3	50% 1445-1426 (2871)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 2.9¢	$3.91	—	-$3.91	39% 895-1424 (2319)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 27.4¢	$27.96	—	-$27.96	49% 3525-3636 (7161)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 30.5¢	$15.47	—	-$0.92	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$6.39	—	-$5.74	60% 2531-1695 (4226)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

64%

140-79 (219)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

Invested

$429.82

Value

$434.16

PnL

+$4.34

Record

58%

4615-3393 (8008)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$31.84

Value

—

PnL

-$31.84

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$36.97

Value

$24.46

PnL

-$4.93

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$19.56

Value

—

PnL

-$19.56

Record

54%

1677-1430 (3107)

Invested

$12.9

Value

—

PnL

-$12.9

Record

50%

481-481 (962)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$15.29

Value

—

PnL

-$15.29

Record

46%

1350-1577 (2927)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

—

PnL

-$9.15

Record

52%

1810-1682 (3492)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$2.28

Record

52%

4164-3913 (8077)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

—

PnL

-$3.8

Record

47%

1411-1608 (3019)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.8

Record

63%

2780-1667 (4447)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.03

Value

—

PnL

-$3.03

Record

46%

985-1137 (2122)

Invested

$2.7

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$1.46

Record

66%

2369-1200 (3569)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

—

PnL

-$1.95

Record

44%

1371-1749 (3120)

Invested

$0.5

Value

—

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

936-980 (1916)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

—

PnL

-$1.31

Record

33%

686-1380 (2066)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

716-1225 (1941)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$138.3

Value

—

PnL

-$138.3

Record

50%

1445-1426 (2871)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

—

PnL

-$3.91

Record

39%

895-1424 (2319)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$27.96

Value

—

PnL

-$27.96

Record

49%

3525-3636 (7161)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$15.47

Value

—

PnL

-$0.92

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

Invested

$6.39

Value

—

PnL

-$5.74

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 24 top traders (79%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1cea575b...acdc33

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794522000

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

QuantumPebble673

Down — $0

Hcrystallash

Up — $434.16

soswald1

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $24.46

ply-pm2

Down — $0

PBot-6

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

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