Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 35%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 20 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$2.15 | 64% 140-79 (219) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$699.24 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $186.83 | $161.11 | -$12.97 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.8¢ | $141.48 | $161.11 | +$19.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.8¢ | $32.17 | — | -$32.17 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $89.61 | $94.09 | +$4.48 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $66.52 | $64.63 | -$1.89 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $57.03 | $64.19 | +$7.16 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 78.7¢ | $105.33 | $61 | -$27.53 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $17.42 | — | -$7.99 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $12.24 | $15 | +$2.76 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $22.03 | $24.19 | +$2.16 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $22.55 | $15.19 | +$2.01 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $6.96 | $13.13 | +$6.17 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $4 | $5.19 | +$1.19 | 63% 1662-970 (2632) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $5 | +$0.8 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $5 | +$2.8 | 44% 1371-1749 (3120) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.73 | $5.25 | +$2.52 | 58% 4615-3393 (8008) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $4.05 | — | -$4.05 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1.54 | — | -$1.54 | 47% 1411-1608 (3019) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$2.15
Record
64%
140-79 (219)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$699.24
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$186.83
Value
$161.11
PnL
-$12.97
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.61
Value
$94.09
PnL
+$4.48
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$66.52
Value
$64.63
PnL
-$1.89
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$57.03
Value
$64.19
PnL
+$7.16
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$105.33
Value
$61
PnL
-$27.53
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$17.42
Value
—
PnL
-$7.99
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.76
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$22.03
Value
$24.19
PnL
+$2.16
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$15.19
PnL
+$2.01
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$13.13
PnL
+$6.17
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$1.19
Record
63%
1662-970 (2632)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.8
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.8
Record
44%
1371-1749 (3120)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$2.52
Record
58%
4615-3393 (8008)
Invested
$4.05
Value
—
PnL
-$4.05
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
Invested
$1.54
Value
—
PnL
-$1.54
Record
47%
1411-1608 (3019)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $94.09
blue.birds
Down — $64.63
ply-pm2
Down — $64.19
uninformedfloww
Down — $61
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0