Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$930.69
Smart Money Signal
9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$3.18 | 64% 140-79 (219) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $737.01 | +$0.16 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $368.51 | $737.01 | +$370.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $367.3 | — | -$370.55 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 67.4¢ | $145.35 | $215.68 | +$70.33 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $22.78 | $22.8 | +$0.02 | 49% 936-980 (1916) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $11.05 | $15 | +$3.95 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $14.44 | $16.25 | +$1.81 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 32.6¢ | $11.07 | $33.95 | +$22.88 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.6¢ | $10.5 | — | -$10.5 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $4.5 | $9.78 | +$5.28 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $5 | +$1.8 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $5 | +$2.7 | 44% 1371-1749 (3120) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.6¢ | $8.39 | — | -$3.44 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.55 | — | -$0.55 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $22.5 | — | -$22.5 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.18
Record
64%
140-79 (219)
Invested
$750
Value
$737.01
PnL
+$0.16
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$145.35
Value
$215.68
PnL
+$70.33
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$22.78
Value
$22.8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
936-980 (1916)
Invested
$11.05
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.95
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$1.81
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
Invested
$11.07
Value
$33.95
PnL
+$22.88
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$10.5
Value
—
PnL
-$10.5
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$9.78
PnL
+$5.28
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.8
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.7
Record
44%
1371-1749 (3120)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$8.39
Value
—
PnL
-$3.44
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
—
PnL
-$0.55
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
Invested
$22.5
Value
—
PnL
-$22.5
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $215.68
0x50f7
Down — $22.8
ply-pm2
Down — $15
rabadabadoo
Down — $16.25
blue.birds
Down — $33.95
ohioism
CTRUp — $0