Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 37%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$977.03
Smart Money Signal
7 of 19 top traders (37%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$3.75 | 64% 140-79 (219) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $734.5 | $1.5K | +$729.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $727.5 | — | -$725.65 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $750 | +$54.41 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $375 | $750 | +$375 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $322.48 | — | -$320.59 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $139.16 | $142 | +$2.84 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $68.48 | $64.72 | -$3.76 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $36.04 | $43.61 | +$7.57 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $26.94 | $42.19 | +$15.25 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $18.4 | $27.15 | +$8.75 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $21.62 | $23 | +$1.38 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.7¢ | $18.25 | — | -$18.25 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $7.2 | $15 | +$7.8 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $10.51 | — | -$10.51 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $6.4 | $5 | -$1.25 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 63% 1662-970 (2632) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $2.95 | $10 | +$7.05 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $3.85 | $11 | +$7.15 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 74% 1116-401 (1517) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $5.05 | $5 | +$2.9 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.4¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 44% 1371-1749 (3120) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$3.75
Record
64%
140-79 (219)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$54.41
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$139.16
Value
$142
PnL
+$2.84
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$68.48
Value
$64.72
PnL
-$3.76
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$36.04
Value
$43.61
PnL
+$7.57
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$26.94
Value
$42.19
PnL
+$15.25
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$27.15
PnL
+$8.75
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$21.62
Value
$23
PnL
+$1.38
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
Invested
$18.25
Value
—
PnL
-$18.25
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$15
PnL
+$7.8
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$10.51
Value
—
PnL
-$10.51
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.25
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
63%
1662-970 (2632)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$10
PnL
+$7.05
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$11
PnL
+$7.15
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
74%
1116-401 (1517)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.9
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
44%
1371-1749 (3120)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $142
asdcaxz
Down — $64.72
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $43.61
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $42.19
ply-pm2
Down — $27.15
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $23