Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 25%
$1.1K
$-2.4K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 20 top traders (25%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 64% 140-79 (219) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $750 | +$24.5 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $113.53 | $115.54 | +$3.72 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $52.29 | — | -$48.24 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 83.7¢ | $74.49 | $40.99 | -$22.25 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $39.5 | $50 | +$10.5 | 47% 1411-1608 (3019) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 83.8¢ | $21.8 | $26 | +$4.2 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $23.41 | $20 | -$3.41 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $14.68 | $25.28 | +$10.6 | 54% 1677-1430 (3107) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $16.83 | $17 | +$0.17 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $15.24 | $22.45 | +$7.21 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $12.9 | $15.18 | +$2.28 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $15.62 | $11.99 | -$3.63 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $9.09 | $12.56 | +$3.47 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $8.5 | $10.12 | +$1.62 | 39% 895-1424 (2319) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $4.69 | $5 | +$0.31 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 63% 1662-970 (2632) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
64%
140-79 (219)
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$24.5
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$113.53
Value
$115.54
PnL
+$3.72
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$52.29
Value
—
PnL
-$48.24
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$74.49
Value
$40.99
PnL
-$22.25
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Invested
$39.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$10.5
Record
47%
1411-1608 (3019)
Invested
$21.8
Value
$26
PnL
+$4.2
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$23.41
Value
$20
PnL
-$3.41
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$14.68
Value
$25.28
PnL
+$10.6
Record
54%
1677-1430 (3107)
Invested
$16.83
Value
$17
PnL
+$0.17
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$22.45
PnL
+$7.21
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
ohioism<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
$15.18
PnL
+$2.28
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
Invested
$15.62
Value
$11.99
PnL
-$3.63
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
Invested
$9.09
Value
$12.56
PnL
+$3.47
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$1.62
Record
39%
895-1424 (2319)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.69
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.31
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
63%
1662-970 (2632)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $750
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $115.54
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $40.99
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $50
uninformedfloww
Down — $26
blue.birds
Down — $20